FLORIDA — A rare and significant cold air intrusion is unfolding across the state, with meteorologists warning that cloud-level temperatures early Sunday morning could approach or even rival long-standing records, particularly in the Tampa Bay region.
Forecast data indicates that temperatures near the 850 millibar level — roughly 4,700 feet above the surface — may drop to around -11°C, a level of cold rarely observed over Florida and one that has only been recorded a handful of times in decades of observations.
What Makes This Cold Event So Unusual
The 850 mb level represents the lower portion of the cloud layer and is closely monitored by meteorologists to assess the depth and strength of cold air masses. Forecast guidance suggests Sunday morning may feature some of the coldest upper-air temperatures Florida has seen in years.
In Tampa Bay, the standing record for the coldest 850 mb temperature is -10.5°C, set in 1999. Current projections place temperatures at or below that mark, raising the possibility of a new record — even if it may not be officially verified.
Why a Record May Not Be Officially Logged
While the forecast supports near-record or record-breaking cold aloft, verification depends on the timing of weather balloon launches. Upper-air observations are collected only at specific times, and the coldest temperatures may occur outside those observation windows…