Additional Coverage:
- Powerful nor’easter to ‘bomb’ out with heavy snow, Winter Storm Alerts issued from South Carolina to Virginia (foxweather.com)
Carolinas Brace for “Bomb Cyclone” Nor’easter Days After Deadly Winter Storm
SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, NORTHEAST – Just as communities across 16 states are digging out from a massive winter storm that claimed at least 60 lives, a powerful nor’easter is poised to “bomb out” and slam the Carolinas this weekend. The FOX Forecast Center is warning of a potential “bomb cyclone” and significant winter weather for the region, with uncertainty remaining about the storm’s exact path beyond Virginia.
Winter Storm Watches have already been issued for parts of North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Tennessee, and Georgia. North Carolina Governor Josh Stein has declared a State of Emergency, activating the State Emergency Response Team to assist communities. Governor Stein urged residents to “stay alert and take precautions” as another round of winter weather approaches.
The impending storm is fueled by a large reservoir of cold air from the Polar Vortex, which will surge south from Canada, establishing very cold conditions across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. This weekend, a quickly developing low-pressure system will form off the Southeast coast, drawing moisture northward and locking in cold air, creating prime conditions for a prolonged period of winter impacts.
A notable characteristic of this system is its strong potential for “bombogenesis,” or rapid intensification. Projections indicate the storm’s central pressure could drop significantly (roughly 1,005 millibars to near 967 millibars) between late Saturday and midday Sunday. This rapid strengthening would generate an extremely tight pressure gradient, leading to powerful winds and dangerous conditions along the immediate coastline, particularly across the Outer Banks.
Snow is expected to begin Friday evening, with light accumulations possible in the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians, including Nashville and Gatlinburg. However, Saturday morning marks the onset of the main event, as a coastal low rapidly develops and snow blankets the higher elevations of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and northern Georgia.
Saturday is anticipated to be the primary day for snowfall in the region. As the coastal low intensifies, it will pull colder air southward and increase moisture, leading to ramped-up snow intensity in interior cities like Richmond, Raleigh, Charlotte, and Columbia, South Carolina.
Snowfall rates could be high, with conservative estimates of 8-12 inches, particularly in North Carolina, though totals could be higher. For cities like Raleigh, this system could rank as a top-five snow event.
Widespread accumulations of 5-8 inches are expected for southern Virginia, most of North Carolina, and central South Carolina.
While heavy snow will be a primary concern, coastal areas face some of the most serious impacts. Forecasters are increasingly worried about the combination of 60-70 mph onshore wind gusts, high surf, and significant beach erosion, potentially leading to damage reminiscent of recent hurricane seasons, including the loss of homes. The storm’s close proximity to the coastline means near hurricane-force gusts are possible in some coastal locations.
Snow is likely to reach coastal cities such as Wilmington, Myrtle Beach, Charleston, and the Outer Banks, with 3-5 inches possible by Sunday morning. If the heaviest snow coincides with the strongest winds, blizzard conditions cannot be ruled out, especially along the North Carolina coast.
Adding another layer to the threat, this storm coincides with a full moon, also known as the Snow Moon. Strong winds are expected to align with Sunday morning’s high tide (around 7-8 AM ET), increasing the risk of coastal flooding from storm surge-like water rise.
Projections suggest a potential 3-4 foot rise along vulnerable stretches of the coastline. Combined with blowing snow and possible whiteout conditions, coastal scenes on Sunday could be dramatic and severe.
Further north, the FOX Forecast Center is monitoring potential impacts on Sunday. While a complete miss for the Northeast appears unlikely, there is significant disagreement on the exact track. Some models depict a high-impact snowstorm for eastern Massachusetts and Maine, while others keep the bulk of the snow offshore.
Currently, the highest confidence for meaningful impacts is across southeastern Massachusetts, particularly Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket, which could see snow, strong winds, and hazardous marine conditions even with an offshore track. For Massachusetts and Rhode Island, a closer track could bring powerful winds exceeding 60 mph along the immediate coastline and over waters, raising concerns for coastal flooding and beach erosion if winds align with high tide.
Confidence quickly diminishes farther west, highlighting the sensitivity of this forecast to small shifts in the storm’s path. Cities along the Interstate 95 corridor, from Washington D.C. to New York City, are on the extreme western fringe of potential impacts.
A slight shift of 50-100 miles could mean the difference between minor and more notable impacts. Currently, a blockbuster snowstorm is not expected for the I-95 corridor, but gusty winds and periods of light snow remain possible.
This is a developing story. Stay tuned for the latest forecasts and updates.