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- Who is favored to win an Oscar, according to Kalshi and Polymarket (businessinsider.com)
Oscar Buzz: Bettors Lay Down Millions on Who Will Take Home the Gold
Hollywood’s biggest night, the 98th Academy Awards, is fast approaching on Sunday, March 15th, and it’s not just film buffs making predictions. Prediction market bettors have already wagered tens of millions of dollars on who will snag an Oscar in each of the 24 coveted categories.
Since the nominations dropped on January 22nd, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen a flurry of activity, with individuals placing bets on everything from Best Picture to Best Animated Short Film. This surge in prediction market engagement has not gone unnoticed, drawing considerable media attention, some raised eyebrows from state regulators, and even scrutiny from Washington lawmakers.
These markets have a proven track record. In January, Polymarket teamed up with the Golden Globes, and their bettors impressively predicted the winners in 26 out of 28 categories. This year, the Oscars, hosted by the legendary Conan O’Brien, will air live on ABC and Hulu, promising an evening of glitz, glamour, and, for some, significant winnings.
Current predictions suggest “Sinners” could be a big winner, potentially taking home four Oscars. “One Battle After Another” and “Frankenstein” are also strong contenders, each projected to win three awards.
The Current Oscar Odds: A Look at Late January’s Predictions
Best Picture – “One Battle After Another”
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” is the frontrunner for Best Picture, with a 67% chance on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” trails with a roughly 24% chance. This category has seen the most action, with over $10 million wagered across the two platforms.
Best Director – Paul Thomas Anderson
Anderson is also the overwhelming favorite for Best Director, with an 80%+ chance of winning on both platforms.
Best Actor – Timothée Chalamet
Timothée Chalamet, starring in “Marty Supreme,” leads the Best Actor race with odds in the mid-70s.
Best Actress – Jessie Buckley
Jessie Buckley, from “Hamnet,” is a near-certainty for Best Actress, with 88-89% odds on both prediction markets.
Best Cinematography – “Sinners”
The supernatural horror film “Sinners” is the favorite for Best Cinematography, holding a roughly 66% chance.
Best Production Design – “Frankenstein”
“Frankenstein” is a strong contender for Best Production Design, with over 80% odds.
Best Adapted Screenplay – “One Battle After Another”
“One Battle After Another” is also overwhelmingly favored for Best Adapted Screenplay, boasting a 90% chance.
Best Sound – “F1”
Apple’s sports drama “F1” is the clear favorite for Best Sound, with over 80% odds.
Best Animated Short Film – “Butterfly”
This category is tighter, with “Butterfly” at roughly 40% and “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” close behind at 26-30%.
Best Live Action Short Film – “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” narrowly leads, with a 57% chance on Kalshi and 34% on Polymarket. “Friend of Dorothy” and “The Singers” are also in the running.
Best Film Editing – “One Battle After Another”
“One Battle After Another” leads for Best Film Editing, with about a 60% chance.
Best Original Score – “Sinners”
“Sinners” is the overwhelming favorite for Best Original Score, with over 85% odds.
Best Original Song – “Golden”
“Golden,” the hit from “KPop Demon Hunters,” is the top pick for Best Original Song, with odds in the mid-to-high 80s.
Best Supporting Actor – Stellan Skarsgård
Stellan Skarsgård, from “Sentimental Value,” is the favorite for Best Supporting Actor, with roughly 64% odds.
Best Supporting Actress – Teyana Taylor
Teyana Taylor, portraying Perfidia Beverly Hills in “One Battle After Another,” is the overwhelming favorite for Best Supporting Actress, hovering around 75%.
Best Visual Effects – “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” is almost certain to win Best Visual Effects, with over 90% odds.
Best Original Screenplay – “Sinners”
“Sinners” is the favorite for Best Original Screenplay, with over 80% odds.
Best Documentary Short Film – “All the Empty Rooms”
“All the Empty Rooms,” which chronicles the empty bedrooms of school shooting victims, has a roughly 55% chance of winning.
Best Documentary Feature Film – “The Perfect Neighbor”
“The Perfect Neighbor,” focusing on Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” laws, is the favorite, with about a 68% chance.
Best International Feature Film – “Sentimental Value”
“Sentimental Value” leads the odds for Best International Feature Film, with 67-70% odds.
Best Costume Design – “Frankenstein”
“Frankenstein” is the overwhelming favorite for Best Costume Design, with roughly 85% odds.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling – “Frankenstein”
Similarly, “Frankenstein” is a strong contender for Best Makeup and Hairstyling, with probabilities in the high 80s.
Best Animated Feature Film – “KPop Demon Hunters”
“KPop Demon Hunters” is the prohibitive favorite for Best Animated Feature Film, with roughly 90% odds.
Best Casting – “Sinners”
“Sinners” is seen as most likely to win Best Casting, with a 65% chance.
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- Who is favored to win an Oscar, according to Kalshi and Polymarket (businessinsider.com)