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Super Bowl LX: Seahawks vs. Patriots – A Battle of Explosive Plays and Redemption
Football fans, mark your calendars! Super Bowl LX is set to kick off this Sunday at 6:30 p.m.
ET, with the Seattle Seahawks taking on the New England Patriots. You can catch all the action on NBC and Peacock.
This year’s Super Bowl promises an exciting rematch with a touch of history in the making. The New England Patriots are gunning to become the first NFL team ever to secure seven Super Bowl wins.
For the Seattle Seahawks, this game offers a chance at redemption. Their last trip to the big game was Super Bowl XLIX in 2015, where they fell to none other than the Patriots in a nail-biting 28-24 defeat.
The Patriots charged into this season’s playoffs as the AFC’s No. 2 seed, while the Seahawks dominated the NFC, earning the No. 1 seed.
We’ve got your ultimate cheat sheet to everything you need to know about Super Bowl LX. From in-depth team previews and a breakdown of Super Bowl MVP candidates to expert game picks and betting advice, we’ve got you covered.
Dive deep into statistics from ESPN Research, analyze the two quarterbacks, coaches, and officiating, and explore positional advantages and crucial “X factors.” And don’t forget to scroll down for a sneak peek at Bad Bunny’s highly anticipated halftime show!
Let’s jump right into the matchup.
Super Bowl LX: The Explosive Play Bowl
When: Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California
Television: NBC/Peacock
Get ready for what many are calling the “Explosive Play Bowl.” The NFL has seen a shift in recent years, with games increasingly becoming contests of creating and preventing explosive plays.
Defenses are opting for more two-high safety looks, pushing offenses towards runs and short passes. In response, offenses are adapting, often using third-and-short as an opportunity for those game-changing explosive plays.
With dynamic kickoffs and touchbacks at the 35-yard line, field position is harder to control, making big plays even more critical.
This season, the top four teams in explosive-play differential (the difference between generating and preventing explosive plays) all made it to the conference championships. The Patriots, with the league’s best offensive explosive creation rate, ranked fourth.
The Seahawks, boasting the NFL’s best defensive explosive-play differential in 25 years, were number one. This sets up a fascinating clash: the league’s top offense at creating explosive plays against the league’s best defense at stopping them.
However, as history shows, regular season stats don’t always dictate Super Bowl outcomes. The six best teams by explosive-play differential in the last 25 years all made the Super Bowl – and all lost.
The Patriots’ defense, while ordinary in the regular season, has stifled opponents in the postseason, allowing only six explosive plays. Meanwhile, the Seahawks gave up 12 explosives in the NFC Championship, winning thanks to a stellar performance from quarterback Sam Darnold, who had been inconsistent leading up to the game.
Unpredictable factors like injuries, fumbles, missed kicks, or even weather could sway Sunday’s outcome. But all things being equal, this Super Bowl promises to be a thrilling battle between two of the league’s most explosive teams. Whoever wins the explosive play battle will likely hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Meet the Teams
Seattle Seahawks
2025 Record: 14-3
ESPN’s Football Power Index: No.
1
Coach: Mike Macdonald
At 38, Mike Macdonald, a defensive mastermind and son of a West Point graduate, is on the cusp of becoming the third-youngest Super Bowl winning coach. The Seahawks hired him in 2024 to replace the legendary Pete Carroll, and the move has paid off handsomely.
General Manager John Schneider’s bold decision to trade Geno Smith for Sam Darnold and bring in Klint Kubiak for the offense has revitalized the team. Macdonald’s defense, now in its second year, has become the stingiest in the NFL, allowing a league-low 17.2 points per game.
With six Pro Bowl selections, the Seahawks are brimming with talent and a newfound camaraderie that has elevated their play.
New England Patriots
2025 Record: 14-3
ESPN’s Football Power Index: No.
10
Coach: Mike Vrabel
Mike Vrabel, a three-time Super Bowl champion as a Patriots linebacker, has instilled a winning culture in New England. Known for his hands-on approach (he still puts on a chest pad at practice!)
and empathetic leadership, Vrabel has quickly transformed the team. Players credit his “4 Hs” philosophy – history, heartbreak, hope, and hero – for fostering strong connections and a desire to play for each other.
This strong team bond, combined with the emergence of MVP candidate and second-year quarterback Drake Maye under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, has propelled the Patriots to an unexpected Super Bowl appearance.
Quarterback Breakdown
Sam Darnold, Seahawks
Darnold’s regular season was a tale of two halves. He was lights-out for the first 10 weeks, leading the league in QBR and yards per dropback.
However, his efficiency dipped significantly from Week 11 onward. In the playoffs, he’s reverted to his stellar early-season form, but the big question remains: Which Sam Darnold will show up on Super Bowl Sunday?
- Strength: When he’s at his best, Darnold accurately pushes the ball downfield. He led QBR qualifiers in air yards per attempt and completion percentage over expected in the first 10 weeks, all while avoiding sacks.
- Weakness: Turnovers plagued Darnold during the regular season, giving him the worst turnover rate among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks. While he’s been turnover-free in the playoffs, it’s a historical concern for Seattle.
Drake Maye, Patriots
Despite finishing as MVP runner-up, Maye was arguably the NFL’s best quarterback this season. He led the league in QBR (77.1) by a significant margin, even with a modest offensive line and receiving corps. The Patriots heavily relied on him, with the second-highest pass rate over expected.
- Strength: Maye’s accuracy is elite. His completion percentage over expected was the highest of any QB season since 2016, and he achieved this while throwing deep.
- Weakness: Maye was sacked 47 times in the regular season, ranking fifth-worst in the NFL. While the offensive line and receivers play a role, his high sack rate and a 1.8% fumble rate (third-worst) are areas of concern.
Biggest Questions
- **How can Seattle get WR Rashid Shaheed more involved in the pass game? ** Shaheed, a game-breaking speedster, has made a significant impact on special teams and showed his offensive potential with a 51-yard gain in the NFC Championship.
While Seattle is a run-heavy offense with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the primary target, unleashing Shaheed’s speed could be a huge factor.
- **Will the Patriots’ offensive line be able to keep Maye clean against Seattle’s pass rush?
** The Seahawks are renowned for their effective stunt plays, which have challenged the Patriots’ offensive line this season. New England will rely on rookie left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson to play beyond their years against a defense known for generating pressure with just four rushers.
Key One-on-One Matchup
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs. Christian Gonzalez (Patriots)
Smith-Njigba, initially a slot receiver, has expanded his role, making him a versatile threat. The question is whether Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez will shadow him.
While Gonzalez has mostly stayed on one side of the field this season, expect the Seahawks to use motion to get Smith-Njigba into the slot, potentially forcing nickel corner Marcus Jones into a tough matchup. Smith-Njigba has the edge here, but if Gonzalez can hold his own at the line, it could force Darnold to look elsewhere – a win for the Patriots’ defense.
Keys to a Seahawks Win
- Positional Advantage: Secondary
Seattle’s secondary, built on speed and physicality, allowed only 5.5 yards per attempt.
They can deploy Cover 2 to limit Maye’s deep throws and mix in man schemes to disrupt New England’s passing rhythm. With talented corners Devon Witherspoon and Josh Jobe, rookie Nick Emmanwori in the slot, and instinctual safeties Julian Love and Coby Bryant, the Seahawks can close throwing windows and impact the run game.
- X Factor: Rashid Shaheed, WR
Shaheed is the Seahawks’ most likely player to produce a game-changing play, whether through a catch or on special teams.
He’s recorded three return touchdowns this season. While his receiving role has been limited, he’ll likely be covered by Carlton Davis III, who led the Patriots in pass interference penalties – potentially opening up big-play opportunities.
- Rookie to Watch: Nick Emmanwori, S
Emmanwori, a versatile hybrid defender, has quickly become one of Seattle’s top defensive players.
His intense tackling and energy are vital. An ankle injury in practice this week could be a concern if he’s not 100%.
Keys to a Patriots Win
- Positional Advantage: Running Backs
With dual-threat backs Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson, the Patriots must establish an offensive tempo through the run game and utilize them in the pass game.
Stevenson excels after contact, and Henderson provides explosive perimeter plays. Against Seattle’s zone coverage, both backs can be effective underneath outlets for Maye.
- X Factor: Marcus Jones, CB
Jones, primarily the Patriots’ nickelback, will face a challenge covering the Seahawks’ receivers.
He’s a playmaker, leading the Patriots in “defeats” (turnovers, TFLs, plays preventing conversions) and impacting the kicking game as a second-team All-Pro punt returner with two touchdowns. His big-play ability could be crucial.
- Rookie to Watch: Will Campbell, OT
Campbell, the top tackle drafted in 2025, faces his biggest test against Seattle’s diverse pass rush.
Attributed seven sacks in the regular season, he’ll need to maintain his poise as a pass protector to keep Maye clean and the offense moving.
What ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) Says
ESPN’s FPI gives the Seahawks a 59.6% chance of winning, favoring them by an average of 3.6 points. This Super Bowl pits two top-10 FPI teams against each other: No.
1 Seattle (7.0) and No. 10 New England (2.6).
The Patriots rank ninth on offense to Seattle’s 11th, while Seattle’s defense is first to New England’s 11th.
Remarkably, in the preseason, the Seahawks had a 2.6% chance to make the Super Bowl (21st best), and the Patriots had a mere 2% chance (25th best).
Who Wins the Game?
Out of 58 experts, 48 (82.8%) picked the Seahawks to win, with the Patriots receiving 10 votes (17.2%). The most common score prediction was 27-17.
Who Will Win Super Bowl MVP?
Sam Darnold is the favorite among experts, with 23 of 58 (39.7%) predicting him as MVP. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Darnold (+115), Maye (+240), and Smith-Njigba (+550) as the top contenders.
- **Jason Reid (Andscape senior writer): Darnold. ** He’s been on a hot streak, playing the best game of his career in the NFC Championship.
- **Liz Loza (fantasy and betting analyst): Darnold. ** Given Seattle’s projected win, the QB is a logical choice, winning MVP in 34 of 59 Super Bowls.
- **Todd Archer (Cowboys reporter): Maye. ** Despite a shoulder concern, Maye’s poise and talent will lead the Patriots to their seventh Lombardi.
- **Eric Moody (fantasy and betting analyst): Smith-Njigba. ** As the engine of the Seahawks offense, if he sees similar target volume to his 10-catch, 153-yard, one-touchdown NFC Championship performance, he’s well-positioned.
- **Matt Miller (NFL draft analyst): Smith-Njigba. ** His route-running and Darnold’s short-area accuracy could result in a huge night for the All-Pro receiver.
- **Ben Solak (NFL analyst): Shaheed. ** In a predicted low-scoring game, a single game-changing touchdown could earn MVP, and Shaheed has that ability in all three phases.
Stats and Trends to Know
Seahawks:
- Nine straight wins (including playoffs), the longest active streak in the NFL.
- Darnold is 0-4 against the Patriots in his career.
- Smith-Njigba seeks his 11th 100-yard receiving game, which would tie for third-most in NFL history.
- Defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence has a sack and forced fumble in both Seahawks’ playoff wins; if he does it again, he’ll be the first this century.
- The Seahawks are the first team since the 2016 Patriots to lead the NFL in scoring defense and reach the Super Bowl.
Teams leading in scoring defense are 14-4 in the Super Bowl.
Patriots:
- Averaged 18.0 points this postseason, fourth fewest by a Super Bowl team all-time.
- First team since the 1970 merger to defeat three top-five total defenses en route to the Super Bowl.
- Led at halftime in 17 of 20 games this season, tied for the most in the Super Bowl era.
- Maye has 129 rushing yards on scrambles in the playoffs, fourth-most by a QB in a single postseason in 20 years.
- Undefeated (12-0) in games this season where Christian Gonzalez and Milton Williams play.
Bold Stat Line Predictions
- **Shaheed finishes with 100-plus all-purpose yards and scores a touchdown. ** (Eric Moody)
- **Smith-Njigba goes well over 100 yards, catching 14 passes for 186 yards and three touchdowns. ** (Mike Tannenbaum)
- **Kenneth Walker III posts 150-plus yards from scrimmage. ** (Stephania Bell)
- **Maye throws for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. ** (Field Yates)
Who Is In, and Who Is Out?
- Seahawks: Sam Darnold has been managing a left oblique injury through the playoffs but says he feels great. Fullbacks Brady Russell (hand) and Robbie Ouzts (neck) are questionable.
Rookie safety Nick Emmanwori’s ankle injury could be an issue if he’s not 100%.
- Patriots: Drake Maye has been limited by a right shoulder injury and an illness, raising questions about his routine and effectiveness.
Linebacker Robert Spillane (ankle) and edge rusher Harold Landry III (knee) also have uncertain statuses.
What to Know About the Officiating
Shawn Smith will be the Super Bowl referee, breaking the recent pattern of rotating officials. While less experienced than recent Super Bowl referees, Smith has been a strong performer in the playoffs for five seasons. He’ll have experienced support from umpire Roy Ellison and side judge Eugene Hall, both working their third Super Bowl.
Last Time These Two Teams Met in the Super Bowl?
It’s a game etched in infamy for both fan bases: Super Bowl XLIX in 2015. With 26 seconds left and Seattle on the 1-yard line, Russell Wilson’s pass to Ricardo Lockette was intercepted by rookie Malcolm Butler, securing the Patriots’ fourth title. The decision not to hand the ball off to Marshawn Lynch remains one of the most debated calls in Super Bowl history.
How to Bet Super Bowl LX
Current Line from DraftKings Sportsbook: Seahawks -4.5, O/U 45.5
This Super Bowl is a rare one, with both teams starting the season at 60-1 odds to win. The Seahawks opened as 3.5-point favorites and quickly moved to 4.5 points, making them the biggest Super Bowl favorite since the 2021 Rams.
However, big favorites have struggled to cover, with the last seven favored by 4+ points failing to cover, and five losing outright. The underdog has won the last three Super Bowls and covered the last five.
AFC teams are also 8-3 ATS in the last 11 Super Bowls.
Best Bet: Patriots +4.5
Darnold struggles under pressure, and New England’s blitz-heavy, explosive-play-limiting defense could force him into an inefficient game.
Combined with the Patriots’ run-heavy approach, this game is likely to stay tight. Seattle might win, but the Patriots and the points make for a smart bet.
Who Is Playing the Halftime Show?
Six-time Grammy winner and 17-time Latin Grammy winner Bad Bunny will headline the Super Bowl LX halftime show. Known for hits like “Dákiti,” “Titi Me Preguntó,” and “Me Porto Bonito,” he’s also collaborated with artists like Cardi B, J.
Balvin, and Drake. Get ready for a high-energy performance!