DALLAS, TEXAS — Long-range forecast analogs are pointing toward a potentially significant escalation in severe weather beginning around March 7 and continuing into mid-March, with Texas, Oklahoma, and much of the Deep South emerging as the most at-risk regions. New ensemble guidance highlights a dynamic upper-level pattern that historically aligns with organized severe weather outbreaks across the Southern Plains and Southeast.
The evolving setup suggests increasing odds of strong thunderstorms, damaging winds, large hail, and possible tornado activity as atmospheric ingredients begin to align.
Upper-Level Pattern Favors Repeated Storm Development
Forecast maps analyzing 500-millibar height anomalies show a pronounced trough digging into the western United States while a ridge strengthens across the Southeast. This configuration promotes strong southwesterly flow aloft, a key driver in transporting Gulf moisture northward into North and East Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee.
When a western trough combines with warm, moist air returning from the Gulf of Mexico, it creates a classic springtime severe weather setup. The jet stream positioning indicated in the analog data supports repeated storm system development along a corridor stretching from Dallas and Oklahoma City northeast toward Memphis and the Ohio Valley…