The first serious storm system of meteorological spring for Central Texas will arrive this weekend, bringing the potential for strong thunderstorms, large hail, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and a noticeable drop in temperatures.
Looking at the overall setup, Texas is sandwiched between two storm systems that originally developed from the same large trough of low atmospheric pressure in the jet stream. On Friday, that system split with one piece moving northeast before becoming an upper-level system of low pressure over the Great Lakes, while the other retrograded southwest toward Baja California.
Saturday’s weather setup
Our weather on Saturday will be influenced by the upper-level low pressure over the Great Lakes, which is dragging a strong cold front southward into Texas. Across Central Texas, the combination of a dry line separating dry and humid air masses and the approaching cold front will provide enough atmospheric lift to trigger scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, a deep pool of moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to build, increasing atmospheric instability and helping storms develop and intensify. This setup creates the potential for severe afternoon thunderstorms capable of producing large hail — more than 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter, or around golf-ball size — along with strong wind gusts…