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Oscar Night 2026: Our Picks for the Big Winners!
Get ready for a wild ride at the 2026 Oscars! This year’s nominations are a smorgasbord, serving up everything from bloodthirsty vampires and high-octane car chases to classic Shakespearean drama, show tunes, and even a little ping pong for good measure. The frontrunners are clear, and we’ve put our money where our mouths are.
Here’s a look at who we think will win – and who should win – at Sunday night’s Academy Awards.
Best Picture Face-Off: Sinners or One Battle After Another?
Our Take: Sinners deserves the gold, but One Battle After Another is likely to take home Best Picture.
Many are predicting One Battle After Another will clinch Best Picture, largely due to its appeal to traditional Academy voters. As Glen Weldon points out, Best Picture is determined by ranked-choice voting, meaning a film needs broad appeal, not just a passionate fan base.
He suspects the horror elements of Sinners might be a step too far for some “old school” voters. Weldon also suggests that One Battle After Another‘s gentle satire of right-wing extremism might resonate with a certain type of Academy member who sees their vote as a political statement.
Aisha Harris agrees, adding that “it’s time for Paul Thomas Anderson.” Despite his widespread acclaim, Anderson has yet to win Best Picture or Best Director, and many in Hollywood feel it’s his moment.
Harris notes the distinct difference in political commentary between the two films, suggesting Sinners‘ more direct portrayal of a Black character confronting the KKK might be too “a step too far for certain people.” However, Harris is a vocal advocate for Sinners, calling it “a stunning feat of artistry” and a testament to Ryan Coogler’s raw talent.
Linda Holmes echoes the sentiment of a desired winner versus a likely winner. She highlights Sinners‘ momentum from its Best Cast win at the Actor Awards (formerly SAG Awards), a significant precursor. However, she points to the Producers Guild’s choice of One Battle After Another as a counter-indicator, noting that producers represent a more “old school” segment of Academy voters.
Stephen Thompson’s Counter-Argument: Sinners Will and Should Win!
Stephen Thompson, however, is feeling optimistic. He sees strong parallels between Sinners‘ campaign and the successful run of Everything Everywhere All at Once a few years back.
Both films were early-year releases, earned significant box office, maintained buzz for months, featured largely non-white casts, and defied traditional Oscar genres. He believes Sinners‘ greater-than-expected number of nominations indicates widespread support within the Academy.
Thompson praises Sinners‘ stunning visuals, powerful acting, and exciting narrative, singling out Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s cinematography as “jaw-dropping.”
Best Actor: Is It Timmy’s Time or Michael B. Jordan’s?
Our Take: Timothée Chalamet will likely win Best Actor, but Michael B. Jordan is more deserving.
Aisha Harris is putting her money on Timothée Chalamet for his role in Marty Supreme, despite acknowledging that his “chaotic campaign” might have alienated some. She passionately advocates for Michael B.
Jordan, calling his performance in Sinners his best yet. Jordan’s portrayal of twins, one of whom becomes a vampire, showcases layers and depth that Harris believes truly highlights his growth as a performer.
Glen Weldon also champions Jordan’s ability to expose vulnerability in two characters who are otherwise “performing an utter lack of vulnerability.” However, he concedes that Chalamet’s “showier,” “more in your face” performance in Marty Supreme and his aggressive campaigning will likely secure him the win. Weldon debunks the myth that the Academy dislikes “try-hards,” stating, “Try-hards win Oscars all the time.”
Linda Holmes suggests Chalamet’s “juice has waned a bit,” with his promotional persona and comments about ballet and opera potentially rubbing people the wrong way. While she acknowledges his strong performance in Marty Supreme, she expresses a desire to see Michael B. Jordan win.
Stephen Thompson’s Counter-Argument: Michael B. Jordan Will and Should Win!
Stephen Thompson believes it’s Michael B. Jordan’s time.
He argues Jordan’s performance is “plenty showy,” expertly crafting distinct personalities for the twins. Thompson suspects voters are “exhausted by Timothée’s performance, by this movie, and by not only this Oscar campaign, but last year’s Timothée Chalamet Oscar campaign for A Complete Unknown.”
He also believes Sinners is more well-liked than Marty Supreme, which he sees as a contributing factor.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley is the Consensus Pick
Our Take: Jessie Buckley will win Best Actress, and she should.
Stephen Thompson is firmly in Jessie Buckley’s corner for her role as Agnes in Hamnet. He praises her commitment and willingness to go “over the top” while maintaining a powerful performance.
He describes her role as the “giant concrete beam holding up this film,” showcasing deep emotion, pathos, and nuanced “face and eyes” acting. While acknowledging other strong contenders like Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You and Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue, Thompson believes Buckley is the clear standout.
Linda Holmes agrees that Buckley is the likely winner, noting her popularity, extensive body of work (including Women Talking and The Lost Daughter), and strong showing in precursor awards. She credits Buckley with successfully delivering an “Oscars-y” performance, which is “hard to do… really well.” However, Holmes’ personal pick for who should win is Rose Byrne, whose performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You she describes as “the whole movie.”
Glen Weldon also favors Rose Byrne, highlighting her constant presence on screen and her ability to evoke empathy through a raw and visceral performance. Despite his personal preference, Weldon acknowledges Buckley’s “spiky and difficult and real” portrayal of grief in Hamnet and its profound impact on audiences.
Aisha Harris, while admitting she didn’t personally connect with Hamnet as others did, still recognizes Buckley’s impressive body of work and the emotional power of her performance that moved many viewers to tears. Her personal pick for the win, however, is Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value, appreciating her character’s dual struggles as a performer and with family dynamics.
Stay tuned this Sunday to see if our predictions hold true!