FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WANE) – La Niña has officially ended, and a stronger than normal El Niño is possible by the end of the year.
We are currently in the ENSO-Neutral phase, which occurs when Pacific sea surface temperatures are near average. ENSO-Neutral conditions are favored to continue April through June.
The El Niño pattern is likely to begin sometime during May through July, and continue through the end of the year. Increasing subsurface temperature anomalies and recent western wind anomalies over the western Pacific drive this pattern change.
Recent models issued by the Climate Prediction Center show the possibility of a very strong El Niño, or a Super El Niño, occurring near the end of the year. This condition is met when sea surface temperatures are 2°C or higher above average. Only four Super El Niños have been recorded since 1950.
There is a 25% chance of a Super El Niño happening by the end of the year, with a 50% chance of at least a Strong El Niño (sea surface temperatures≥1.5° C) taking place. A Super El Niño was last recorded in August 2015 lasting through March of 2016…