The main focus of today’s forecast is the potential for severe thunderstorm development along and near a warm front Monday evening. There is a conditional threat of severe weather Tuesday, which depends a lot on how things transpire Monday.
Warmer, humid and unstable air has been blowing into north Iowa and southern Minnesota with the strong, gusty wind out of the southwest. Sunday evening and overnight into Monday morning will remain quiet, at least locally, while rain is focused farther to our south and east.
A wave of low pressure will be taking shape over the region Monday, and a warm front will be draped somewhere over southern Minnesota. Where that warm front sets up late Monday afternoon to evening will be a crucial component to *where* we see thunderstorms developing late Monday.
Temperatures will be rising into the upper 70s Monday afternoon, and we’ll see a decent dose of sunshine through much of the day. This will also increase the instability in the atmosphere through the course of the day. There will be stout “cap” south of the warm front with warmer air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere suppressing thunderstorms. Along and just north of the warm front is where the higher risk of strong to severe storms is located…