A homeowner in Cape Coral who bought at the peak in late 2022 has watched roughly $40,000 in equity evaporate on a median-priced house. That owner is not alone. Of the 129 largest U.S. metro areas tracked in quarterly home price data, 39 posted year-over-year declines through early 2026, according to Redfin’s metro-level housing analysis of MLS and public records. Seven of the ten steepest drops were in Florida, a state that just two years ago topped nearly every “hottest markets” list in the country.
Nationally, the median home sale price has continued to edge higher, buoyed by persistent inventory shortages in much of the Northeast and Midwest. That makes Florida’s slide all the more conspicuous. The hardest-hit corridors stretch along the Gulf Coast and into Central Florida: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, North Port-Sarasota, Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando, Palm Bay-Melbourne, and Lakeland have all appeared among the weakest performers in recent quarterly rankings from multiple data providers, including Redfin and ATTOM Data Solutions. While exact rankings shift depending on methodology and time window, the pattern is unmistakable: Florida’s pandemic-era boomtowns are giving back a meaningful share of their gains.
How steep are the declines?
In Southwest Florida, the reversal shows up month by month. The Regional Economic Research Institute at Florida Gulf Coast University’s Lutgert College of Business maintains a home sales dashboard tracking transaction counts and median prices for the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metropolitan statistical area. That data shows median sale prices in the metro have pulled back meaningfully from their 2022 peaks. Between early 2020 and late 2022, the corridor posted cumulative price gains exceeding 40%, a trajectory consistent with Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index figures for the same MSA. Much of that run-up has now partially unwound.
The FGCU dashboard also reveals something more telling than a single soft quarter. Inventory in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area has climbed steadily, days on market have lengthened, and closed transaction counts remain well below their pandemic highs. Falling prices alongside rising supply and slower sales point to a sustained correction, not a seasonal dip…