NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/RIVER VALLEY (KNWA/KFTA) — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a diagnostic discussion over El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), stating that El Niño will emerge in the coming months.
What is El Niño?
When sea surface temperatures (SST) are warmer than normal by at least 0.5°C in a portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, known as the Niño 3.4, for five consecutive 3-month periods, it is labeled as El Niño.
This climate phenomenon is important to observe because it has a major role in tropical convection and atmospheric circulation, such as the jet stream, and how dry/wet the season can be for portions of the United States.
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, where the SSTs are cooler than normal by the same thresholds and cause a drier season in the southern United States.
The convective threshold is lower (SST +0.5°C) from late March to mid-June to support deep convection in the tropics. However, the threshold increases up to +1.5°C from November-January to support that same amount of deep convection during the cooler months in the Northern Hemisphere.
Current ENSO Conditions and What’s Expected
The Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch, which is issued when conditions are favorable for development within the next six months.
Over the past month, sea surface temperatures were near average, indicating ENSO-neutral conditions, with near-average convection near the equator…