The Briefing:
- A California State Auditor report released October 13 found 57 dams in poor or unsatisfactory condition, including 40 rated high or extremely high hazard, most of them clustered near Los Angeles, San Diego, and the Bay Area.
- If the worst-case scenario unfolds, failures at those 40 highest-risk structures could collectively endanger up to 1.5 million people and trigger more than $265 billion in economic damage—with repair costs estimated at $28 billion statewide and no dedicated funding mechanism in place.
- Despite gaining enforcement authority after the 2017 Oroville Dam crisis, the Department of Water Resources has never filed a formal punitive action against a noncompliant dam owner, even as forecasters warn of a potentially record-strength El Niño winter bearing down on the state.
A System Exposed Before the First Storm Hits
With a potentially record-strength El Niño winter bearing down on California, a state audit released this week put a stark number on one of the state’s most underreported safety threats: 57 dams currently rated in poor or unsatisfactory condition, many of them aging structures sitting upstream from millions of Californians. The timing could hardly be more alarming. Federal forecasters now put the odds of a very strong El Niño at over 90 percent, and the infrastructure meant to contain the runoff is, in too many places, barely holding together.
The California State Auditor’s report, published October 13, declined to name the specific dams for security reasons. But it made clear that geography is working against the public: the most degraded structures are concentrated near high-population zones including Los Angeles, San Diego, and the Bay Area. Should the worst-case scenario materialize, the consequences would be catastrophic. According to the auditor’s projections, failures at the 40 highest-risk dams could collectively put 1.5 million people in harm’s way and generate more than $265 billion in economic losses.
When Concrete Gets Too Old to Fix
That case is not isolated. Several dams across the state have been flagged as deficient for at least nine years. One was identified as vulnerable to flood events as far back as 2017—the same year a near-disaster at the Oroville Dam spillway forced the evacuation of about 188,000 downstream residents and prompted state lawmakers to dramatically expand the Department of Water Resources’ oversight powers. Nearly a decade later, only some repairs have been made—the owner has since opted for full replacement, but lost its primary funding source, leaving the project stalled…