FLORIDA — Forecast models are cautiously signaling a rare and highly conditional chance for snowflakes across parts of the state this weekend, as an unusual ocean-effect weather pattern briefly develops behind a surge of Arctic air.
Overnight runs of the GFS and EURO models are now leaning into a setup where very cold air moves over comparatively warmer Gulf waters, creating just enough instability for precipitation to briefly mix with snow. While seeing accumulating snow in Florida remains a long shot, meteorologists say the “window of opportunity” for flakes has narrowed but is no longer zero.
When the Best Opportunity Exists
The most favorable timing appears to be after 6 PM Saturday through Sunday morning, when colder air deepens across the region. During this period, surface temperatures are expected to hover near the lower threshold needed for frozen precipitation, especially during overnight hours.
Even slight changes in temperature or precipitation intensity could determine whether flakes fall or the event stays entirely rain. The setup is expected to be brief, with conditions quickly becoming less favorable after sunrise Sunday.
Where Flurries Are Most Likely
Model guidance places the highest, though still limited, chance from Gainesville south toward Highway 60, with the best odds west of Interstate 75. This zone benefits from favorable wind direction pulling Gulf moisture inland while colder air remains in place near the surface…