GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — Winter outlooks can provide a helpful upper hand when entering into snow season. This year, Storm Team 8 has identified several key forecast drivers and a big wildcard that will impact our winter ahead.
WHAT ARE THE MAIN DRIVERS THIS WINTER?
- A weak La Niña to start the winter
- Teleconnection signals in the Gulf of Alaska
- Siberian snowpack and polar vortex activity
A weak La Niña is in place as we enter our winter season. It is worth noting that La Niña conditions are only expected to persist into the early part of this winter. This official forecast indicates a good chance that La Niña will fade by January, with neutral conditions favored from January through March.
Past La Niña years have delivered a wide range of snow totals for West Michigan. In fact, the last five La Niña winters have seen snow totals between 59 inches and 110 inches.
Without solid guidance of snow totals linked to weak La Niñas, other variables must be considered.
Storm Team 8 has higher certainty on what will happen in December.
Decembers with weak La Niñas in the past have typically delivered much colder and snowier conditions. Ten of the 11 weak La Niña Decembers on record for Grand Rapids ended up much colder than average, including our second and third coldest Decembers on record.
In addition to cold, snow is more likely to be robust this December. A weak La Niña was in place for two of our record snowiest Decembers. In total, seven of the 11 years came in snowier than average.
Even the Decembers that did not see record snowfall saw a lot of snow. Several years clocked more than half the season snowfall falling in the month of December.
Storm Team 8 Forecast
LAKE-EFFECT ACTIVITY
La Niña isn’t the only link to winter in West Michigan. Siberian snowpack is stacking up slightly above average for this time of year. That can tend to favor a wobbly polar vortex, increasing the chances of more deep-cold hits early in the winter.
Early indications suggest a good chance for active lake-effect this year. Over the last three years, the lake-effect snow has accounted for the majority of season snowfall.
Similar past winters to our expected upcoming season suggest a more even mix between lake-effect snow and system snow.
JANUARY-FEBRUARY WILDCARD
Neutral conditions are favored (55% chance) to return January through February, opening the door for a multitude of secondary steering variables to take control of West Michigan’s winter. These secondary factors will likely jockey for position over the months of January, February and March…