GREENVILLE, S.C. (FOX Carolina) – We have issued a First Alert Weather Day for Thursday morning as a strong cold front could bring gusty winds and heavy rain. The beginning of the work week will bring near record warmth.
Monday: Clearing and Turning Very Warm Again
Once morning fog and low clouds break:
- Skies will gradually brighten.
- Temperatures will rebound well above normal – about 15°+ above average for early March.
- It will feel more like late spring than early spring.
Rain chances Monday daylight hours look low, but that changes Monday night.
What You Need To Do
- Dress in layers for a cool, damp start and a warm afternoon.
- If you’re sensitive to heat this early in the season, plan outdoor work for the morning or early evening.
Monday Night into Tuesday: Showers, Embedded Thunder Possible
A weak upper-level disturbance moves in from the lower Mississippi Valley Monday night.
- Showers will spread in from west to east overnight.
- A few embedded thunderstorms are possible late Monday night
Tuesday & Wednesday: Early Taste of Summer
Near-record warmth on the way
Under a strong ridge of high pressure and very warm air aloft:
- Highs will reach the low to mid 80s both Tuesday and Wednesday.
- These temperatures are near or above the 99th percentile for this time of year.
- Wednesday looks like the warmest of the two days, especially if we see little to no rain during the day.
Aside from a few showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, many spots will be mainly dry, just very warm and muggy.
Wednesday Night into Thursday: Strong Cold Front & Storm Risk
Key message: A strong cold front brings storms, then cooler, drier air.
By late Wednesday, a deep storm system over the central U.S. sends a strong cold front our way:
- The main question is: how much instability (fuel for storms) will still be around at night as the front arrives.
Right now, most models show the best instability staying to our southwest and weakening as it moves in. Even with limited instability, strong winds aloft can still help produce a few strong to severe storms, especially where any pockets of higher instability hang on…