- Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is gaining momentum in the New Hampshire primary, with her support nearly doubling since December and positioning her to potentially surpass former President Donald Trump.
- Haley currently polls at 37 percent in New Hampshire, trailing Trump by about 14 percentage points. Her reliance on college-educated voters in the state gives her a solid chance of achieving a respectable showing.
- While historically a victory in the New Hampshire primary has been a positive sign for winning the Republican nomination, Trump’s strong lead in national polls and support among working-class voters make it difficult for Haley to become a serious contender.
Additional Coverage:
- Sure, Haley could win New Hampshire. But then what? (abcnews.go.com)
Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary is shaping up to be the only truly competitive primary in this election cycle. While former President Donald Trump has been dominating most Republican primary contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is gaining momentum in New Hampshire. Her support in the state has nearly doubled since December, positioning her to win a significant number of delegates and potentially even surpass Trump. However, this early success may not translate to a serious contender for the Republican nomination, as the rest of the primary calendar is expected to overshadow her.
Haley currently polls at 37 percent in New Hampshire, trailing Trump by around 14 percentage points, according to polling averages from 538. With Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropping out of the race, it may become more challenging for Haley as many DeSantis supporters indicate Trump as their second choice. However, Haley’s reliance on college-educated voters, a demographic that is abundant in New Hampshire, gives her a solid chance of achieving a respectable showing in the state.
In the past, a victory in the New Hampshire primary would have been a positive sign for a candidate’s chances of winning the Republican nomination. Historically, New Hampshire Republicans have chosen the eventual party nominee, with four out of the last five elected Republican presidents winning the state’s primary. The exception was George W. Bush, who lost to the late Sen. John McCain in 2000. However, this year’s primary is unique due to Trump’s strong lead in national polls and his broad base of support among white, working-class voters.
New Hampshire’s high proportion of college-educated residents presents an opportunity for Haley to attract voters. However, nationally, college-educated voters are becoming less of a presence within the Republican Party. After the New Hampshire primary, Haley’s task becomes more challenging as the states that follow have smaller populations of college-educated Republicans. The Republican electorate in New Hampshire is not representative of the larger Republican electorate, which poses a hurdle for Haley’s success beyond the state.
While New Hampshire offers fertile ground for Haley to secure support from college-educated voters, her chances of winning the nomination overall are still slim. Trump’s hold on the Republican Party remains strong, and college-educated voters outside of New Hampshire are more likely to support him than Haley. Even if she performs well in the New Hampshire primary, it is unlikely to significantly impact Trump’s chances of winning the nomination.
In summary, although Nikki Haley has gained momentum in the New Hampshire primary, her success is unlikely to propel her to serious contention for the Republican nomination. The rest of the primary calendar and Trump’s strong position within the party make it challenging for her to overcome the odds.
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- Sure, Haley could win New Hampshire. But then what? (abcnews.go.com)