- Donald Trump maintains strong support from his core groups in the New Hampshire Republican primary, emerges as the clear winner despite anti-Trump voters coalescing around Nikki Haley.
- Preliminary exit poll results show high turnout by unaffiliated voters and a significant presence of moderates, with Haley winning the majority of “undeclared” voters by a 2-to-1 margin.
- Trump’s victory largely driven by male voters, conservatives, evangelicals, and those dissatisfied with the country’s direction, while Haley saw support from college graduates and independent voters.
Additional Coverage:
- NH primary sees notable turnout of unaffiliated voters, moderates: Prelim exit polls (abcnews.go.com)
Donald Trump maintained strong support from his core groups in the New Hampshire Republican primary, despite a coalescing of anti-Trump voters around Nikki Haley. While the race was different from Trump’s overwhelming victory in Iowa, he still emerged as the clear winner, according to exit polls. ABC News projected Trump as the winner of the Republican race, while President Joe Biden was projected to win on the Democratic side.
Preliminary exit poll results highlighted a high turnout by unaffiliated voters and a significant presence of moderates, which is characteristic of New Hampshire’s unconventional voter profile. Forty-seven percent of voters identified as “undeclared” rather than Republican, with Haley winning the majority of these voters by a 2-to-1 margin.
The open nature of the New Hampshire primary allowed independent voters to vote for either the Democratic or Republican nominee. Moderates, who largely supported Haley, comprised 29% of voters, a significant increase compared to Iowa. Conservative voters made up only 25%, whereas in Iowa they accounted for 52%. Additionally, white evangelicals represented 19% of voters, significantly lower than the 55% in Iowa.
Exit polls showed that Haley had an even split among women, while Trump’s victory was driven by male voters. Trump prevailed among conservatives, evangelicals, immigration-focused voters, non-college graduates, and those who expressed discontent with the country’s direction. On the other hand, Haley saw support among college graduates and independent voters.
A substantial portion of voters made their candidate decision in the past week, following the Iowa caucuses. Among these late deciders, Haley had a significant lead over Trump. However, the majority of voters who made their decision earlier overwhelmingly supported Trump.
Haley made gains among white evangelicals and non-college graduates in New Hampshire compared to Iowa. Furthermore, fewer voters in New Hampshire prioritized candidates who share their values, while more looked for candidates with the right temperament.
Trump’s appeal was strongest among voters looking for someone who fights for people like them, while Haley performed well among voters seeking a candidate with the right temperament. In terms of satisfaction with the candidates as the party’s nominee, Trump had a higher percentage of satisfied voters compared to Haley.
The majority of New Hampshire voters identified as independents, similar to the 2012 record. A small percentage identified as Democrats, while Republican identification tied the record low. The number of voters who associated themselves with the MAGA movement declined from Iowa, and fewer voters in New Hampshire considered themselves Biden election deniers.
A higher percentage of voters in New Hampshire said they would consider Trump unfit for the presidency if convicted of a crime compared to Iowa. However, the sentiment among Trump voters remained strongly in favor of him.
The economy and immigration were the top issues for voters in New Hampshire, followed by foreign policy and abortion. Economic sentiment was negative, with a majority dissatisfied or angry with the current state of the country. A majority of voters also believed that life would be worse for the next generation of Americans.
Trump had strong support among immigration voters, while the competition between him and Haley was closer among economy-focused voters. The percentage of voters favoring a federal ban on abortion significantly decreased compared to Iowa.
These exit poll results are subject to change as the night progresses.