- NATO has underestimated Russia’s military capabilities, causing the military alliance to reassess its outlook and issue warnings to prepare for a prolonged conflict.
- Russia can produce several million artillery shells annually and recruit hundreds of thousands of soldiers, contradicting previous predictions.
- The situation in Ukraine is exacerbated by the lack of aid from Republicans in Congress and the EU’s failure to meet ammunition supply targets, forcing Ukrainian forces to reduce combat activities and leaving them vulnerable to a potential Russian invasion.
Additional Coverage:
- NATO vastly underestimated Russia’s ability to resupply its army with troops and ammo, general says (businessinsider.com)
NATO has underestimated Russia’s military capabilities, according to a top general. Estonian Defense Forces Commander Martin Herem told Bloomberg that new intelligence has forced the military alliance to reassess its outlook and issue warnings to prepare for a prolonged conflict. Contrary to previous predictions, Herem stated that Russia can produce several million artillery shells annually and recruit hundreds of thousands of soldiers. He added that Russia is capable of producing even more ammunition than previously believed. This marks a shift in the narrative, as military commanders, analysts, and NATO officials increasingly warn of Russia’s expanding capacities.
Previous estimations by the UK Ministry of Defense and Adm. Tony Radakin, the former head of the UK’s armed forces, suggested that Russia could only produce a maximum of 1 million shells annually. However, this understanding has changed in recent months as Western officials raised concerns about Russia’s ability to manufacture up to 2 million artillery shells per year. Additionally, Christopher Cavoli, the US European Command commander, stated in April that Russia’s ground forces were larger than when it invaded Ukraine, despite significant losses.
The situation in Ukraine is further exacerbated by the stalled efforts of Republicans in Congress to provide more aid to the country, as well as the EU’s failure to meet its target of sending 1 million rounds of ammunition by March. Consequently, there is a shortage of supplies on the front lines, forcing Ukrainian forces to reduce their combat activities. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg recently described the conflict in Ukraine as a “battle for ammunition” and called on Western allies to replenish Ukraine’s stockpiles.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed concern about the lack of Western assistance, warning of a significant shortfall in air-defense missiles, artillery, and substantial casualties. Zelenskyy emphasized that without assistance, Ukraine would become weaker and vulnerable to a potential Russian invasion, leading to a war between NATO and Russia.