- Hong Kong court orders liquidation of China Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer, raising systemic risk and impacting investors.
- Collapse of Evergrande anticipated but still presents risks and results in losses for investors; liquidation process may take years due to company’s size.
- Evergrande’s debt outweighs its assets, with secured creditors prioritized for repayment, offshore creditors likely to face significant losses, and implications for other struggling developers and China’s economy.
Additional Coverage:
- What the collapse of a company owing $300 billion means for the world (businessinsider.com)
A Hong Kong court has ordered the liquidation of China Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer. Evergrande has assets of around $245 billion, but owes about $300 billion. The collapse of the company raises systemic risk and will have negative impacts on investors. Evergrande, which was once China’s largest real estate developer, has been in financial trouble for some time, and the court’s decision to liquidate the company was not a surprise. However, there are concerns about the wider market implications as the property sector contributes to about a quarter of China’s GDP.
According to analysts, the collapse of Evergrande appears to be a “controlled demolition,” and while the situation was anticipated, it still presents risks and will result in losses for some investors. Alvarez and Marsal have been appointed as the liquidators to manage Evergrande’s assets and repay the company’s debts. Offshore creditors are hoping for a debt restructuring plan before liquidation takes place. It is uncertain whether mainland authorities will recognize the Hong Kong court’s decision, which is significant because most of Evergrande’s assets are in mainland China. Experts anticipate that the liquidation process could take years due to the company’s size.
Evergrande’s debt amounts to around $300 billion, while its assets are valued at about $245 billion. The repayment order prioritizes secured creditors first. Liquidators, along with other costs related to the winding down of the company, will be paid next. Employee wages and government debts will follow, and unsecured creditors and shareholders will be at the bottom of the repayment hierarchy. Unsecured creditors, particularly offshore investors, are likely to face significant losses as Beijing authorities focus on maintaining stability and protecting investors in mainland China. Experts estimate the recovery rate for creditors to be less than 3%.
The collapse of Evergrande has raised concerns about other real estate developers in China that are already struggling and have defaulted on their debts. While restructuring is possible, the magnitude of Evergrande’s debt is far greater than what has been collectively restructured by other developers. The fate of Evergrande serves as a warning to other companies in China that large-scale problems will likely result in liquidation. The collapse of Evergrande will have implications for China’s economy and market sentiment, as the country has been facing challenges such as a property crisis, deflationary pressure, and demographic issues. The impact on the markets has been limited thus far, as the news of Evergrande’s liquidation was not unexpected.
China’s economy has been struggling to recover from the pandemic-induced downturn, and its growth in 2023 was 5.2%, an improvement from 2022 but still low compared to previous years. Market sentiment over China’s economy has been negative, leading to a sell-off in the stock markets. However, the markets did not react significantly to the news of Evergrande’s liquidation, indicating that it was already priced in. Authorities are actively managing the situation, and there is no sign of panic. The collapse of Evergrande is seen as a sign that China is taking steps to address the property bubble and transition to a more sustainable economic model.
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- What the collapse of a company owing $300 billion means for the world (businessinsider.com)