Additional Coverage:
- Ukraine’s strikes on Crimean air defenses could end its role as a Russian military staging ground: experts (businessinsider.com)
A fire-induced explosion of ammunition at a military training area in Crimea’s Kirovsky district was reported on July 19, 2023, illustrating the intensification of Ukraine’s assaults on Russian military defenses in the region. The image capturing this incident was contributed by VIKTOR KOROTAYEV via Getty Images.
Recent reports indicate that Ukraine has escalated its attacks against Russian air defenses in Crimea, raising concerns among some U.S. think tanks about the peninsula’s viability as a military base. Despite these concerted efforts, experts caution that these tactics alone are unlikely to bring an end to Russia’s control over Crimea.
The Institute for the Study of war highlighted this Thursday that Ukraine’s continuous offensive against Russian military sites necessitates Russia to deploy additional air defenses. However, sustaining such attacks could soon prevent Russia from coordinating or executing military operations from Crimea.
Over recent months, Ukraine’s strategic targeting of Russian air defenses in Crimea has seen an uptick, particularly this past week. Among the targeted systems were a Russian S-400 “Triumf” and two S-300 missile systems, reportedly hit using U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS).
Following these assaults, Ukraine launched another missile attack, compromising an S-300 system and two S-400 systems, according to Ukraine’s Armed Forces General Staff. While the exact missile types used were not disclosed, there’s speculation they were again ATACMS.
Experts believe these strikes demonstrate the effectiveness of older, Western-provided missiles against Russia’s advanced air defense systems, with Forbes also suggesting Russia’s S-400 systems may not fully protect their forces or even themselves.
Russia’s strategic incorporation of Crimea as a logistical hub for funneling troops and supplies into Ukraine is now under threat, prompting Russian military planners to consider alternative logistics pathways. In response, Russia has reportedly deployed an S-500 system in Crimea to bolster its air defenses, as reported by Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence, citing the ISW.
Despite these advancements, experts assert that Ukraine’s long-distance airstrikes will not singularly conclude Russian occupation of Crimea. Keir Giles of Chatham House remarks on Ukraine’s gradual progress in air and naval operations contributing to Crimea’s diminishing strategic stature for Russian forces, though confirming this requires detailed analysis due to limited publicly available information.
Matthew Savill of the Royal United Services Institute notes Crimea’s geographical positioning limits the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery, suggesting that displacing Russian forces would necessitate a significant Ukrainian ground assault.
The tactical and political implications of Crimea make any Russian withdrawal highly unlikely without substantial military pressure, indicating that a substantial Ukrainian offensive would be required to significantly alter the current military standings, as per comments by James Black of RAND Europe. The loss of Crimea would represent a major blow to President Putin’s prestige, both domestically and internationally.