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- Kevin Costner needs ‘Horizon’ to make roughly $65 million at the US box office to break even. It’s not even halfway there. (newsbreak.com)
Kevin Costplan invested a significant $38 million of his own funds into the making of “Horizon,” adding to that the expenses for marketing the movie. To just break even, the film must earn about $65 million in the U.S. market. Despite these financial pressures, strategies such as presales and a favorable distribution agreement with Warner Bros. could aid in recovering costs.
The opening of “Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1,” directed, produced, and starred in by Costner himself, collected only $11 million in its first weekend. Decades in the making, this sprawling Western saga was initially tied up at Warner Bros., which contemplated releasing it directly to its streaming platform, Max.
Eventually, Costner decided to personally fund the production, even committing to multiple sequels by mortgaging his Santa Barbara property. The total funding, combined with additional secretive backers, covered an estimated $30 million in marketing costs, as reported by Variety, though details regarding the inclusion of this sum in the $38 million total remain murky.
Warner Bros.’ role is limited to distribution, taking a mere 8% of theatrical grosses, leaving Costner heavily reliant on box office returns. An insider from the industry indicated to Business Insider that while Costner’s personal assets like his home are not at risk, there is a looming possibility of substantial financial losses.
Thankfully, the engagement at the Cannes Film Festival significantly mitigated the financial risk for Costner, with the anticipation building much before its premiere for the presales managed by K5 International. By the festival in May 2024, extensive sales across global markets had likely recouped the initial $38 million investment, though covering the separate marketing costs remains a concern.
The film’s investors, primarily Costner, must rally substantial domestic earnings since American Westerns generally perform modestly overseas. With Warner Bros. retaining just an 8% cut, the actors and producers stand to regain significant returns from domestic box office collections that began counting from day one of release.
For broader financial recovery and eventual profit, Costner might need to secure a substantial “Pay 1” deal from a streaming service or cable provider after the traditional video-on-demand window—similar to ancillary deals that ultimately helped mitigate losses from the infamous “Waterworld.”
Costner’s longstanding credibility in Westerns, amplified by his role in “Yellowstone” until his departure, will appeal to streaming platforms considering his potential to draw dedicated audiences. Yet, with more sequels in the pipeline—requiring further investments—Costner’s journey with “Horizon” remains fraught with financial stakes. Warner Bros. and Costner’s representatives have yet to officially comment on the development.