Additional Coverage:
- Russia will have to scale back front lines assaults in 6 weeks due to losses, Ukrainian commander says (newsbreak.com)
In a recent disclosure by a Ukrainian military leader, Russia is expected to reduce its front-line attacks in the next month and a half due to increasing battlefield losses. General Oleksandr Pivnenko, who commands Ukraine’s National Guard, indicated to the news outlet Ukrinform that the Russian military will soon need to shift from offensive operations to defensive ones across many fronts.
General Pivnenko noted that Russian forces are constrained by finite offensive capacities and have faced significant losses. He predicted that these factors would limit their ability to conduct simultaneous aggressive assaults.
Reports have consistently highlighted the severe attrition Russian troops have faced since the onset of their full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Notable tactics, such as committing large numbers of soldiers in direct, frontal “meat assault” attacks, have led to high casualty rates. The UK Ministry of Defence revealed that Russia experienced an average of nearly 1,000 daily casualties in early 2022 and the count surged past this average in mid-2023.
Despite these setbacks, Russian military resilience has been noted with some analysts and international military figures acknowledging Russia’s ability to restore its manpower and weaponry swiftly. For example, Martin Herem, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell have both pointed out the underestimation of Russia’s replenishment capabilities.
In light of these developments, General Pivnenko emphasized the necessity for Ukraine to bolster its defenses. He outlined critical areas requiring attention, including the ramp-up of training centers and acquisition of various defense tools—from drones to air defense systems. Pivnenko remains confident, stating that staying strategically ahead of Russia is key to Ukraine’s success.