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- Young Black voters might be swing voters now (newsbreak.com)
Before Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race on July 21, it was clear that Black voter loyalty to the Democratic Party was waning compared to recent years, including the 2020 election. The Republican Party capitalized on this shift, with figures like Rep. John James and Madeline Brame actively courting Black voters during the Republican National Convention.
Black voters comprise at least 10 percent of the electorate in several pivotal states for the 2024 elections, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida, as well as in closely contested states like Georgia and North Carolina. Thus, even minor shifts in their support could significantly impact the Democratic stronghold in these key areas.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s entry into the race may attract Black voters who drifted away from the Democrats during Biden’s candidacy. Yet, identifying potential Black swing voters is challenging due to the diverse nature of this demographic, which is larger than Canada’s entire population. Trends from high-quality polls between 2008 and 2024 show a significant age-related shift in Black voters’ Democratic support, with younger Black Americans showing less allegiance to the party.
Regarding historical support for Democratic candidates, during Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election, he garnered over 90 percent of the Black vote, alongside strong voter turnout. For a baseline comparison of support for a white Democratic candidate pre-Trump, during the 2008 primaries, polls showed 75 percent of Black adults supported Hillary Clinton against John McCain, which constituted a 67-percentage-point difference.
In contrast, early 2024 polling by NORC revealed Biden led among Black respondents 61 percent to 20 percent—a decreased margin of 41 points compared to earlier years. Although still a significant preference for the Democrats, the margin was notably smaller.
The reason for this change becomes apparent when examining Black voter support by age. Data from 2008 show consistent support for Clinton and McCain across age groups. Fast forward to 2024, the age gap among Black voters becomes pronounced in a Biden-Trump scenario, with younger voters aged 25 to 34 almost equally supporting both candidates.
Further insights suggest that younger Black voters’ lower turnout rates might influence their reduced support for Biden. Analysis shows Trump performed better among Black voters who voted less frequently, particularly among those who didn’t vote in the prior three federal elections. Factors beyond voting frequency, such as the era of the civil rights movements, also influence party loyalty across different age groups.
Additionally, the concept of “linked fate,” which suggests Black Americans view their personal outcomes as intertwined with the fate of their community, varies by age, potentially affecting younger voters’ political preferences. This concept, explored in Michael Dawson’s work “Behind the Mule,” still holds some sway, although age-based differences persist even after accounting for linked fate in statistical models.
As the fall campaign approaches, while the Democratic Party traditionally invests heavily in mobilizing Black voters, the potential reduced margins from younger or less-engaged Black voters might diminish the returns from these efforts.
Research contributions were made by Sophia Leung and Gall Sigler.
*Regression models also indicated that women are slightly more supportive of Biden, while factors like income and education did not strongly predict Black voters’ presidential preferences.
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- Young Black voters might be swing voters now (newsbreak.com)