Additional Coverage:
- The Tehran assassination has changed the game: Analysis (newsbreak.com)
The killing of Ismail Haniyeh has sent shockwaves across the Middle East, putting the region on high alert. After our last coverage on ABC News, Israel confirmed it had targeted and eliminated a top Hezbollah official in Beirut as retaliation for a rocket attack in the Golan Heights. This raised the possibility of counteraction by Hezbollah, though initially, it seemed both parties might avoid a full-scale conflict.
However, the situation dramatically changed following an incident in Tehran where an attack resulted in the death of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh. He was in Iran following his participation in the inauguration of Iran’s new president, under the invitation and protection of Iran’s supreme leader. While Israel has not officially claimed responsibility, Iran’s supreme leader denounced the attack as an act carried out by the “criminal and terrorist Zionist entity.”
Ayatollah Khamenei has vowed harsh retaliation, stating it was their duty to avenge those killed in Iran. The exact nature and timing of this retaliation remain uncertain.
The possible responses could vary from missile or drone attacks similar to prior incidents, to assaults on Israeli targets overseas. Increased security precautions are being observed at Israeli embassies worldwide in anticipation of potential threats.
Furthermore, Hezbollah had previously threatened to target Tel Aviv if Beirut was attacked. Given recent developments, joint military actions from Iran and Hezbollah, aligned with Tehran’s directives, could occur.
Hamas has also promised retaliation, asserting that the attack will only deepen the ongoing conflict. In response, Israel’s defense forces have heightened their security measures, including closing airspace near the border area.
Despite the precision of the strikes in Beirut and Tehran, which Israel claims targeted legitimate military objectives with minimal civilian casualties, there is a consensus among Israeli analysts that Iran is unlikely to declare war over the death of a Hamas leader. They highlight that Iran did not go to war even after the U.S. strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, a key figure in Iran’s military.
Nevertheless, this incident represents a significant security breach and a blow to Iran’s image, happening at a time when Iran aims to display strength in the region. Therefore, while their response might be strong, it likely won’t aim for full-scale war. However, even targeted responses can escalate quickly or be misinterpreted, fueling further conflict.
This ongoing volatile exchange keeps the region in a precarious balance, with widespread anxiety about the future, particularly in places like Tel Aviv.
Read More About This Story:
- The Tehran assassination has changed the game: Analysis (newsbreak.com)