Additional Coverage:
Egypt is actively exploring options to acquire a fifth-generation fighter jet, such as China’s FC-31 Gyrfalcon, as its efforts to secure F-35 stealth fighters from the U.S. have stalled. Previously, ex-President Trump had verbally agreed to sell 20 F-35As to Egypt in 2018, but that deal was shelved due to opposition from both the Department of Defense and Israel.
With their plans on hold, Egyptian officials are now reportedly considering buying advanced fourth- and fifth-generation fighter jets from China. This move could either be a strategic attempt to procure cutting-edge aircraft from a U.S. competitor or a tactical ploy to pressure the U.S. to proceed with the F-35 sale. Egypt’s interest includes the fourth-generation J-10C Vigorous Dragon and the fifth-generation FC-31 Gyrfalcon, although the J-20 Mighty Dragon remains largely unavailable for export by China.
Nicholas Heras of the New Lines Institute commented on Egypt’s potential motivations, noting the possibility of Egypt becoming a significant purchaser of Chinese military equipment. Yet, he also mentioned the delicate balance Egypt must maintain with the U.S. and how this acquisition could impact its relations with Israel.
Additionally, Egypt faces regulatory hurdles due to American laws including the 2008 legislation that ensures Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME) and the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which penalizes countries buying military hardware from U.S. adversaries.
After the blocked F-35 deal, Egypt had considered purchasing 24 Su-35 fighters from Russia but scrapped those plans under the threat of U.S. sanctions, exemplifying its frustration and the limitations on its military acquisitions.
Ryan Bohl of RANE intelligence believes the discussions with China could be an effort to elicit alternative U.S. offerings, such as upgraded F-16s or potentially the F-15s, which would not compromise Israel’s superior military capabilities.
Despite being a major recipient of U.S. military aid, Egypt’s room to maneuver remains constrained by strategic and geopolitical considerations. This has led some analysts like Bohl to speculate on other potential sources for stealth jets, including countries like South Korea, Turkey, and India, which are also developing next-generation aircraft.
Ultimately, while Egypt pursues its ambitious goal to upgrade its combat capabilities, it juggles complex international relationships and strategic constraints, making the attainment of fifth-generation fighters a challenging yet uncertain endeavor.