Additional Coverage:
- Ukrainian forces in Kursk are readying for a long fight and may plan to ‘bleed’ the Russians just like in Ukraine, expert says (newsbreak.com)
In August 2024, medics are seen assisting from a vehicle in Russia’s Kursk region. The image, taken by Anatoliy Zhdanov from Kommersant Photo and distributed via REUTERS, captures a moment of the ongoing conflict fueled by Ukraine’s invasion.
Ukraine’s offensive in the Kursk region persists, where its forces now hold territory. Experts suggest that Ukraine’s strategy could be to prolong the conflict and drain Russian resources. Recent intelligence from the UK highlights significant Russian casualties, with 70,000 troops lost over two months.
On August 6, Ukrainian forces made a surprising attack into western Russia, now controlling nearly 500 square miles—more territory than Russia claimed in Ukraine this year. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated the intention to maintain control indefinitely, not for territorial gain but as leverage in potential negotiations.
Photos from Sudzha in the Kursk region show Ukrainian patrols, illustrating the sustained conflict. Matthew Savill, a strategic expert, noted the unexpected nature of Ukraine’s effort to consolidate control. He theorizes that a strong defense could hurt Russian forces, which have already faced high casualties.
Despite heavy losses, especially in recent months, British intelligence indicated that Russian forces continue to struggle against effective Ukrainian defenses. Over just one day, Ukraine reported 1,300 Russian casualties, though such figures are unverified.
CIA Deputy Director David Cohen described the challenge for Russia in reclaiming Kursk as severe. Experts like Michael Bohnert from RAND Corporation predict heavy losses for Russia if they attempt to retake the territory.
However, the effort is risky for Ukraine too. Prolonged fighting could strain their forces and leave other frontlines vulnerable.
Savill cautioned about the difficulty of establishing effective defenses quickly under fire. Another concern is the potential for Ukraine’s forces to become overstretched. Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies acknowledged the morale boost and tactical advantage for Ukraine but warned of the risks of overextension.
Ukraine’s efforts have shifted Russian military focus but also reminded of the persistent threat in regions like Donbas. The invasion has embarrassed Russian leadership and shifted the initiative back to Ukraine. Yet, the long-term benefits of this bold move are uncertain, with experts suggesting it may take weeks or months to fully understand the consequences.
For more details, read the original article on Business Insider.