Additional Coverage:
- Here’s what we can see Russia’s warships and planes doing in new satellite images of Syria amid regime change (newsbreak.com)
With the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, Russia’s military presence in the country is uncertain. Satellite images show that Russian aircraft remain at the Khmeimim airbase, but warships have left the Tartus naval facility.
Russia’s Tartus base provides access to a warm-water port, while Khmeimim allows for the movement of troops into Africa. Losing these bases would be a setback for Russia, especially amidst its ongoing war in Ukraine.
The imagery shows Russian aircraft, helicopters, and military equipment at Khmeimim. However, it’s unclear if Russia will maintain its presence there.
At Tartus, Russian warships are no longer visible, but have been spotted several miles off the coast. It’s unknown whether they will return to port or if their absence is due to safety concerns.
Ukraine’s military intelligence has claimed Moscow is withdrawing from its bases, but this has not been independently verified. Russia’s defense ministry has not announced any significant force posture changes.
The Kremlin has stated it’s working to ensure the security of its bases through dialogue with the new Syrian leadership. Losing access to these facilities could significantly impact Russia’s ability to project power in the region, including its ability to threaten NATO and operate in Africa.