Additional Coverage:
- The Ukraine-U.S. mineral deal relies on 50-year-old Soviet-era maps and infrastructure that no longer exists, report says (fortune.com)
US Poised to Secure Access to Ukraine’s Minerals, But Questions Loom Large
The United States and Ukraine are nearing an agreement that would grant the US significant access to Ukraine’s mineral resources, a long-sought goal of the Trump administration. The potential deal, which would see the US assisting in developing Ukraine’s mining infrastructure in exchange for a share of future mineral revenues, aims to contribute to a fund for Ukraine’s reconstruction. However, significant uncertainties cloud the agreement.
Experts warn that existing estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth, including crucial resources like cobalt, lithium, and titanium, are based on outdated Soviet-era data. Without a modern assessment, the true economic viability of mining these resources remains unclear. Furthermore, a substantial portion of these deposits lies within Russian-occupied territory, raising questions about accessibility.
Even if the mineral reserves prove substantial, establishing mining operations faces significant hurdles. The average mine takes 18 years to become operational, requiring investments of $500 million to $1 billion.
Ukraine’s war-damaged infrastructure, particularly its power grid, adds further complications. While US technical expertise could assist in development, analysts remain skeptical about the overall economic feasibility.
The agreement also reflects a broader geopolitical strategy by the US to compete with China’s influence over global mineral resources. However, the scale of Ukraine’s potential contribution remains doubtful, especially in light of former President Trump’s ambitious goals.
The fate of mineral deposits in Russian-held territory hinges on a future peace agreement, adding another layer of complexity. While Russia has indicated a willingness to grant US access to some of these resources, analysts believe it is unlikely to significantly impact the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.