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A Soviet-Era Spacecraft is Falling to Earth, But Don’t Panic
A defunct Soviet spacecraft, Kosmos-482, is poised to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere in the coming days, most likely on Saturday. While a half-ton hunk of metal plummeting from space might sound alarming, experts assure the public that there is little cause for concern.
Kosmos-482, originally intended for a Venus landing, has been orbiting Earth for 53 years due to a launch malfunction. Falling space debris is a surprisingly common occurrence, with small pieces re-entering the atmosphere almost daily. The vast majority burn up harmlessly, and the risk of ground impact causing damage is incredibly low, largely due to the fact that most of our planet is covered by oceans.
The European Space Agency (ESA) emphasizes the extremely remote chance of injury from re-entering satellites. Statistically, you’re about 65,000 times more likely to be struck by lightning.
Pinpointing the exact re-entry time and location is challenging due to the complexities of atmospheric and space weather conditions. Current projections from ESA and the U.S.
Space Force place the re-entry window on Saturday, with slightly varying times. Potential landing zones span a wide latitude range, but the most recent predictions suggest a splashdown over the Pacific Ocean or the Southern Ocean.
Launched in 1972, Kosmos-482 was part of a series of Soviet Venus missions. While most of the mission’s debris re-entered decades ago, the half-ton spherical landing capsule remains.
Designed to withstand the intense heat of Venus, the capsule might survive re-entry, though its parachute system is unlikely to be functional after 53 years. While the risk is not zero, scientists compare the potential impact hazard to that of a meteorite.