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Geneva Trade Talks: A First Step Towards De-escalation?
This weekend, high-level officials from the US and China will meet in Geneva, Switzerland, marking the first face-to-face trade talks since tensions dramatically escalated last month. The meeting comes after a tit-for-tat tariff exchange, with the US imposing 145% tariffs on certain Chinese goods and China retaliating with 125% tariffs on US imports. These tariffs have significantly hampered trade between the two economic giants.
The talks will include Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Both sides have signaled a desire to de-escalate tensions, with China aiming to “re-engage” the US. However, the path to resolution remains uncertain.
While tariff reduction is a primary focus, other critical issues are expected to be on the table. These include non-tariff barriers, such as export controls on rare earth minerals from China and semiconductors from the US, as well as the US’s elimination of the de minimis exemption for low-value shipments. Experts suggest that discussions may also encompass broader concerns, including the future of TikTok, fentanyl trafficking, and control of major shipping canals.
Differences within the US administration regarding the role of tariffs add another layer of complexity. One faction views tariffs as a cornerstone of a protectionist trade policy, while another sees them as leverage in negotiations. This internal divide could hinder the US’s ability to present a unified front and commit to specific conditions for tariff relief.
Given the preliminary nature of these talks, experts anticipate a focus on gauging each other’s sincerity and willingness to negotiate, rather than achieving immediate breakthroughs. While both countries have expressed a desire to de-escalate, the road ahead remains long and challenging, with symbolic gestures more likely than concrete resolutions at this stage. The US continues to assert that China is suffering more from the trade war, while China has urged the US to negotiate in good faith.