Additional Coverage:
Tropical Wave Brewing in Caribbean, Florida Urged to Watch Closely
A tropical wave currently churning in the central Caribbean has meteorologists on high alert, with the potential to develop into a tropical storm this week and possibly impact Florida.
Forecasters are closely tracking Invest 98-L, a system located a few hundred miles west of the Windward Islands. So far, Invest 98-L has generated showers and thunderstorms with winds ranging from 30 to 40 mph.
The tropical wave is moving swiftly westward through the Caribbean at 15 to 20 mph but is expected to slow down early in the week. The system is already delivering heavy rains and winds to parts of the Windward and Leeward islands, a pattern expected to continue throughout the day. Warm Caribbean waters could further fuel the system’s strengthening, following a year of extreme weather that caused a record-breaking $126 billion in damages across the United States.
There is a 50% chance of this storm system forming within the next 48 hours, increasing to an 80% chance over the next seven days. Should it develop, the storm would be named Melissa, becoming the next named storm of the season, according to News 6 in Orlando.
Meteorologists are advising Floridians to monitor the system closely, as forecast models remain uncertain about its exact path through the end of the month. AccuWeather meteorologists report increasing confidence that parts of the Caribbean and portions of the southeastern United States could experience direct impacts.
“We are forecasting a high risk of tropical development for the wave moving through the Atlantic’s main development region,” stated AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “As it reaches the warm waters of the Caribbean early this week, low wind shear in the southern half of the Caribbean may allow it to quickly become a tropical storm.”
Understanding an “Invest”
The National Hurricane Center uses the term “invest” – short for investigation – to refer to areas of low pressure they are monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm, as reported by Naples Daily News.
Invests are characterized by clusters of thunderstorms and rain showers. It’s important to note that an invest designation does not guarantee that the system will ultimately develop into a hurricane or tropical storm.
Invests are numbered from 90 to 99, followed by a letter to indicate their basin: “L” for the Atlantic basin and “E” for the eastern Pacific. Once the numbering reaches 99, it restarts with 90. The designation of an invest allows for the creation of specialized data sets and computer models, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running “spaghetti models” to predict potential paths.