Additional Coverage:
Tropical Storm Melissa Brewing: Florida on Alert as Hurricane Status Looms
Local weather forecasters are keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Melissa, issuing a serious warning that the storm is likely to intensify into a hurricane as it tracks closer to Florida.
As of Wednesday, Melissa was situated approximately 1,000 miles from Florida’s coast but is projected to reach hurricane strength by Thursday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) acknowledged “significant uncertainty” in Melissa’s projected path and intensity.
NHC forecasters also noted an increased chance of Melissa becoming a major hurricane – defined as Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 mph – should its forecast track shift further southwest.
Despite these warnings, no advisories have been issued for Florida or the U.S. at this time, and it remains uncertain whether the hurricane will directly impact the state. AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva indicated a low probability of direct or even indirect impacts on Florida, beyond increased waves and rip currents, estimating the chances at around 15%.
Melissa’s Potential Path
“The more likely scenario is that the storm moves across Cuba and then heads out to sea,” DaSilva explained. He added that by the end of the week, Melissa is expected to stall or move very slowly near Jamaica or Hispaniola, a situation that sometimes leads to “unexpected things” with tropical cyclones, warranting close monitoring.
Should an unexpected turn occur, DaSilva believes Florida could see impacts around the middle of next week, specifically from Wednesday through Friday, October 29-31. He emphasized that while nothing is imminent, residents should continue to monitor developments over the coming days as models are refined.
Fox Weather hurricane expert Bryan Norcross echoed DaSilva’s assessment, stating that while Florida’s chances of a direct hit are not zero, they are “extremely small.” Norcross detailed a scenario where Melissa could drift into the extreme western Caribbean before being “scooped north” by a dip in the jet stream.
However, he noted that current reasonable track scenarios do not indicate this. A track over Cuba and the Bahamas, however, remains a possibility.
AccuWeather has also indicated a medium risk of tropical rain or wind impacts across the Bahamas and South Florida between October 27-30.
Natural Forces at Play
AccuWeather reports that a “dip in the jet stream” is currently influencing Melissa’s trajectory. DaSilva explained that this dip will move away into the Atlantic later this week, leaving the storm in a weak steering flow, which is why it’s expected to stall near Jamaica or Hispaniola and potentially drift westward.
“The key question is how far west it can get. If it reaches the western Caribbean, Florida could come into play,” DaSilva warned, drawing parallels to late-season storms like Wilma, though not currently forecasting a similar track.
Another dip in the jet stream is anticipated early to mid-next week. If Melissa is positioned too far west by then, there’s a chance it could be steered towards South Florida. However, DaSilva stressed that the more likely outcome is for the storm to remain east of Florida, despite a recent slight westward trend in models that could be temporary.
He added that new hurricane hunter data over the next day or so will improve model guidance, providing a clearer picture. DaSilva concluded that weak steering currents are making the forecast particularly tricky, contributing to the wide spread observed in model plots.