Additional Coverage:
Hurricane Melissa Intensifies to Category 5, Threatens Jamaica with Catastrophic Impacts
Kingston, Jamaica – Hurricane Melissa has rapidly strengthened into an extremely dangerous Category 5 storm, setting its sights on Jamaica with a forecast of destructive winds, life-threatening storm surge, and catastrophic flooding throughout the day.
According to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. ET advisory on October 27, Melissa was located approximately 145 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, boasting maximum sustained winds near 175 mph with even higher gusts. In anticipation of “life-threatening” conditions, Jamaican officials have initiated evacuations of low-lying areas and opened hundreds of shelters.
The forecast track indicates that the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica tonight and into early Tuesday, October 28. The storm is then projected to cross southeastern Cuba Tuesday night and traverse the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, October 29.
While some fluctuations in intensity are possible before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica on Tuesday, forecasters emphasize that the storm is expected to reach both Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an “extremely powerful major hurricane.” It is also anticipated to maintain hurricane strength as it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.
“Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion in Cuba,” forecasters urged in the advisory.
Catastrophic Flooding and Storm Surge Expected
A hurricane warning is currently in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. A hurricane watch has been issued for the southeastern and central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Melissa is forecast to unleash significant rainfall, with totals between 15 and 30 inches expected for portions of Jamaica. Southern Hispaniola could see an additional 8 to 16 inches through Wednesday, October 29. Forecasters warn that “catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides” are highly likely in these areas.
For eastern Cuba, rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches, with localized amounts approaching 20 inches, are anticipated from Monday, October 27, through Wednesday, October 29. This extreme rainfall is expected to result in “life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.”
Furthermore, a life-threatening storm surge is predicted along the southern coast of Jamaica from Monday night into Tuesday, October 28. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, accompanied by “large and destructive waves.” Significant storm surge is also possible along the southeastern coast of Cuba late Tuesday into Wednesday, October 29, with peak heights potentially reaching 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels.
Understanding Hurricane Formation
Hurricanes originate in the tropics over warm ocean waters. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit.
Under favorable conditions, these clusters can organize into a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression is upgraded to a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph.
When winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.