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Iran Grapples with Severe Drought, Raising Concerns Over Stability and Nuclear Ambitions
TEHRAN, Iran – Iran is currently experiencing its most severe drought in decades, a crisis that is fueling fears of potential evacuations in the capital city of Tehran and casting a long shadow over the regime’s stability and its controversial nuclear program, according to a leading environmental expert.
Kaveh Madani, the Director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, warns that Iran’s escalating “water bankruptcy” will significantly impair the nation’s operational capacity and diminish its standing on the international stage.
“This water bankruptcy weakens Iran on the world stage,” Madani stated. “If they want to stick to their ideology and fight with the West, they must use their natural resources and burn them, so if there is no water, there is less resilience and less capacity to resist.”
Madani, a long-standing critic of environmental mismanagement in Iran, emphasized that the current water crisis was entirely foreseeable. “The water bankruptcy situation was not created overnight,” he explained. “The house was already on fire, and people like myself had warned the government for years that this situation would emerge.”
The gravity of the situation was underscored by President Masoud Pezeshkian, who reportedly warned that a lack of rainfall before winter could necessitate a partial evacuation of Tehran. Of the five primary dams supplying the capital, one has already completely dried up, with another operating at less than 8% capacity.
In response to the dwindling resources, Energy Minister Abbas Alibadi announced that water supplies would be temporarily cut off on some evenings to facilitate reservoir refilling, urging citizens to reduce their consumption by 20% to prevent widespread rationing.
“The symptoms were already present, and now the flames are undeniable. We are discussing Day Zero, when the taps would run dry in Tehran and other cities once immune to shortages,” Madani cautioned. He added, “Iran is in a state of water bankruptcy, the result of decades of mismanagement, worsened by prolonged drought and climate change.”
Madani also highlighted the potential for the collapse of basic infrastructure to ignite broader civil unrest. “When people are out of water and electricity, you face domestic and national security problems that even Iran’s enemies, not even President Trump or Prime Minister Netanyahu, could have wished for this to happen.”
The expert further warned that the crisis extends beyond civilian well-being, posing a direct threat to Iran’s energy and nuclear infrastructure. Despite previous U.S. claims of airstrikes destroying Iranian nuclear facilities, recent intelligence suggests ongoing enrichment activities at a fortified site known as Pickaxe Mountain.
“If water and electricity shortages persist, any nuclear program would also be impacted,” Madani asserted. “Lack of rain means less hydropower generation, leading to both water and power outages.”
Adding to Iran’s woes are the sweeping sanctions reimposed by the U.S. and its allies on the country’s oil exports and banking sector following the termination of the 2015 nuclear deal.
“Additionally, they face the issue of sanctions,” Madani noted. “There were already sanctions in place, imposed by the United States and there were also Security Council sanctions that, as you know, have been reintroduced.”
He concluded, “Iran is in resistance mode, and remaining in this mode means increased pressure on Iran’s ecosystem, natural resources, and water, but it also means heightened concerns about food insecurity issues and dependence on food imports.”
While the situation is dire, Madani believes a full evacuation of Tehran remains improbable. “People have jobs, children are in school, so it can’t happen overnight. The government hopes for rain, but people are already afraid.”