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Black Friday: A Shifting Holiday Tradition Amid Economic Headwinds
NEW YORK – While the days of chaotic Black Friday brawls over bargain-basement electronics may be largely behind us, the shopping event still holds its ground as the official launch of the holiday retail season. This year, however, the festive spending spree unfolds against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and the lingering specter of President Donald Trump’s far-reaching tariffs on imported goods.
Many retailers have opted to absorb some of these increased costs and scale back on hiring rather than passing the full burden onto consumers. This strategic maneuvering comes as U.S. consumer confidence dipped this month to its lowest point since April-a period that coincided with the initial announcement of Trump’s tariffs-following a government shutdown, sluggish hiring, and persistent inflation, according to a recent report from The Conference Board.
Despite these headwinds, shoppers have demonstrated remarkable resilience, consistently showing a willingness to spend. This is evidenced by robust quarterly sales figures from major players like Walmart and Best Buy. However, retail executives also note a discernible shift in consumer behavior: shoppers are increasingly deal-focused and more selective in their purchases.
Aron Boxer, 50, of Greenwich, Connecticut, exemplifies this cautious approach. He postponed a car purchase this year due to tariff concerns and plans to hunt for toy deals on Cyber Monday, even indicating a readiness to wait until the very end for the deepest discounts.
“The tariffs definitely are not behind me, and I am concerned about it,” said Boxer, who founded an educational services company and a life coaching service. “I did consider buying earlier this year, but I feel like some people made some pretty bad business decisions anticipating tariffs to have a bigger impact than they did.”
Despite individual anxieties, analysts and mall executives express optimism heading into the critical Black Friday week. Jill Renslow, Chief Business Development and Marketing Officer at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, reported a “very positive start to the holiday season,” noting strong traffic in November that has surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels. The Mall of America is even planning early-bird incentives, offering gift cards and other giveaways to the first 250 customers on Friday morning.
The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, projects a healthy surge in holiday sales, estimating that consumers will collectively spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November and December. This represents a 3.7% to 4.2% increase over last year’s $976 billion in holiday sales. Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment methods, anticipates a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from November 1 through December 24.
“Clearly, there’s uncertainty,” stated Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard. “Clearly, consumers feel on edge. But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season.”
Online sales have been particularly robust, with consumers spending $79.7 billion from November 1 to Sunday, according to Adobe Analytics. This marks a 7.5% gain from the previous year, exceeding Adobe’s initial 5.3% growth forecast for the season.
Tariffs have undeniably influenced retailers’ merchandising and pricing strategies. Many stores accelerated shipments of holiday merchandise before tariffs took effect and have absorbed some of the additional import costs. However, some expenses have been passed on, particularly for items like toys, which are largely sourced from China.
Market research firm Circana’s retail tracking service found that 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw a price increase of at least 5% compared to the first four months of the year. Toys, baby products, housewares, and team sports equipment were among the most affected categories, with 83% of toys sold in September experiencing at least a 5% price hike. Marshal Cohen, Circana’s chief industry advisor, predicts this number will climb even higher in the coming months.
Some executives have observed a moderation in holiday discounting. Mall of America’s Renslow noted that deals didn’t appear as early as she anticipated but estimated that store tenants have ramped up this week with discounts in the 30% to 50% range, likely to deepen further over the weekend. Stephen Lebovitz, CEO of CBL Properties, which operates 85 shopping centers, also pointed to unimpressive holiday discounting, suggesting that “one of the benefits of the tariffs or the silver lining is that the inventory levels for the retailers are leaner, and they’ve tried to allow themselves to keep pricing power.”