Additional Coverage:
- Analysts worried as new job market data reveals ‘gut-wrenching’ economic trend (marketrealist.com)
Local Economists “Gut-Wrenched” as Job Market Shows Alarming Slowdown
[City, State] – Despite recent upbeat pronouncements regarding the economy and the stock market, new labor market data is sounding alarm bells among financial experts, revealing a concerning trend of slowing job growth and wavering worker confidence.
The latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics paint a stark picture: the U.S. economy added a mere 64,000 jobs in November, followed by an even lower 50,000 in December. These numbers fall significantly short of analysts’ expectations and mark a troubling end to 2025, which has been described as one of the most volatile years for the labor market.
“It’s gut-wrenching,” remarked Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, in an interview with Fortune, highlighting the paradox of an economy that is growing yet failing to generate sufficient jobs.
Further insights from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicate a substantial drop in job openings, falling to approximately 7.1 million in November – a sharp decline from October and nearly 900,000 fewer than a year prior.
Perhaps even more telling is the “quit rate,” considered a key indicator of worker confidence, which remained stagnant at 2.0% in November. Swonk found this lack of movement particularly “shocking,” noting that such inertia hasn’t been seen since 2014, when the economy was still grappling with the aftermath of the Great Recession. The implication, she suggests, is that workers are “clinging on” to their current positions out of fear, rather than actively seeking new opportunities.
This observation is corroborated by the New York Fed’s December 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, where respondents reported only a 43.1% chance of finding a new job if laid off. This marks the lowest level since the survey’s inception in 2013, and the second record low after a 44.9% chance was reported in August.
The December job market data further solidified these concerns, with 2025 recording the weakest annual job growth since 2003, adding just 584,000 jobs compared to a 2 million increase in 2024. While the unemployment rate saw a slight dip from 4.6% to 4.4%, it remains close to its highest point since September 2021, according to USA Today.
“The labor market’s resilience is being tested, and the coming months will be critical in determining whether this is a late-cycle slowdown or the prelude to something more persistent,” stated Dustin Thackeray, a CFA, partner, and head of portfolio management at Crewe Advisors.
Experts are now labeling the current environment a “low-hire, low-fire labor market,” resulting in a growing number of individuals struggling to re-enter the workforce. CNN highlighted that the share of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more has risen to 26%, suggesting that “unemployment is increasingly becoming a permanent state rather than a temporary transition,” according to Nicole Bachaud, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter.
Bachaud also noted an increasing trend of older workers remaining in the labor market longer, driven by both increased life expectancy and pressures on retirement savings due to affordability concerns.
Amidst these challenging figures, there are a few glimmers of positive news. Wage gains have been stronger than anticipated, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% for the month, contributing to an overall increase of 3.8% for the year – a modest but welcome gain over inflation.
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- Analysts worried as new job market data reveals ‘gut-wrenching’ economic trend (marketrealist.com)