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Grim Milestone Looms: Russia-Ukraine War Casualties Could Reach 2 Million by 2026
A stark new report warns that the combined casualties from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war could skyrocket to 2 million by spring 2026. This alarming figure encompasses soldiers killed, injured, or missing on both sides of the nearly four-year conflict.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released its sobering predictions on Tuesday, forecasting a grim milestone for the devastating war. According to the CSIS report, Russia is estimated to have suffered 1.2 million casualties, including 325,000 troop deaths, between February 2022 and December 2025.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is estimated to have endured between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, with approximately 140,000 troop deaths. The current combined casualty count for both nations is estimated to be as high as 1.8 million.
Gaining a precise understanding of military losses remains a significant challenge, as both Moscow and Kyiv have been reticent in providing timely data on their casualties, as noted by The Associated Press. Both countries are also reportedly focused on amplifying their adversary’s losses. Russia has publicly acknowledged just over 6,000 soldier deaths, with activists and independent journalists suggesting that reports of military losses are often suppressed within Russian media.
The CSIS report highlights Russia’s immense human cost despite minimal territorial gains. “Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power,” the report states. It further emphasizes the unprecedented scale of these losses, noting, “No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II.”
The report indicates that Russian battlefield casualties and fatalities have been “significantly higher” than Ukraine’s, with an estimated ratio of roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1. CSIS attributes these elevated Russian losses to several factors, including “failure to effectively conduct combined arms and joint warfare, poor tactics and training, corruption, low morale and Ukraine’s effective defense-in-depth strategy in a war that favors the defense.”
The report also suggests that Russia has deliberately accepted high casualties as a strategic component. “Russia’s attrition strategy has accepted the costs of high casualties in hopes of eventually wearing down Ukraine’s military and society,” the report explains.
In addition to the staggering casualty rates, Russia’s territorial advancements have been “remarkably slow.” Since seizing the military initiative in January 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of 15 to 70 meters (49 to 230 feet) per day in their most prominent offensives. The report’s authors characterize this pace as “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century.”
The release of this report comes just weeks before the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite ongoing attempts at mediation by international parties, including the U.S., the conflict continues to rage, exacting a heavy toll on both sides.
Recent reports from Wednesday indicate two fatalities in a Russian strike on an apartment block on the outskirts of Kyiv, with at least nine others injured in separate attacks on the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Kryvyi Rih.
Amidst the ongoing conflict, representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. recently held their first trilateral talks since 2022 in the United Arab Emirates. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described these conversations as “constructive” in a post on X, noting that further meetings could occur as early as next week.
“A lot was discussed, and it is important that the conversations were constructive,” Zelenskyy wrote. “As a result of the meetings held over these days, all sides agreed to report back in their capitals on each aspect of the negotiations and to coordinate further steps with their leaders.”