Will Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow This Year?

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Punxsutawney Phil: Your Guide to Groundhog Day 2026

As winter’s chill continues its lingering embrace, many are eagerly anticipating any sign of spring’s impending arrival. With much of the nation still digging out from Winter Storm Fern and bracing for more snow, all eyes are turning to a furry prognosticator: Punxsutawney Phil.

Groundhog Day, a quirky tradition with roots tracing back to German immigrants in the 18th and 19th centuries, has been a fixture in the U.S. since 1887. It’s a day when hope springs eternal – or at least for an early spring.

When is Groundhog Day 2026?

Mark your calendars! Groundhog Day 2026 falls on Monday, February 2nd. This date is strategically placed halfway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox, making it a pivotal moment for those yearning for warmer weather.

The main event unfolds in Gobbler’s Knob, Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, where thousands gather annually to witness Punxsutawney Phil make his highly anticipated appearance.

Shadow or No Shadow: What Does it Mean?

The fate of the next six weeks of weather hinges on Phil’s vision (or lack thereof).

  • If Phil sees his shadow: Brace yourselves for six more weeks of winter.
  • If Phil does not see his shadow: Hallelujah! An early spring is on its way.

For those keeping score, Phil saw his shadow in 2025, prolonging the winter season.

Phil’s Accuracy Record

While Phil’s predictions are a beloved tradition, his track record offers a dose of reality. Out of 129 Groundhog Day celebrations, Phil has seen his shadow a whopping 108 times, predicting more winter 84% of the time.

However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that Phil’s overall accuracy rating over his 130+ years of forecasting stands at approximately 35%. Notably, Phil had an impressive 31-year streak of predicting winter, seeing his shadow every year from 1903 to 1933.

So, as February 2nd approaches, whether you believe in Phil’s meteorological prowess or simply enjoy the festive tradition, Groundhog Day remains a charming mid-winter highlight.


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