Additional Coverage:
- U.S. accuses China of secret nuclear testing as it calls for broad new arms treaty after New START (nbcnews.com)
US Accuses China of Secret Nuclear Test as Global Arms Control Reaches Critical Juncture
Geneva, Switzerland – The United States has leveled a serious accusation against Beijing, alleging that China conducted a clandestine nuclear test in 2020. This claim, made at a global disarmament conference on Friday, comes at a pivotal moment for international arms control, just one day after the expiration of a key treaty limiting U.S. and Russian missile and warhead deployments.
The accusation highlights significant and growing tensions between Washington and Beijing, with the U.S. now calling for a new, broader arms control treaty that would include not only Russia but also China.
Thomas DiNanno, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, revealed the intelligence in Geneva. “I can reveal that the U.S. government is aware that China has conducted nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons,” DiNanno stated to the Disarmament Conference.
DiNanno further elaborated, claiming the Chinese military “sought to conceal testing by obfuscating the nuclear explosions because it recognized these tests violate test ban commitments. China has used ‘decoupling’, a method to decrease the effectiveness of seismic monitoring, to hide their activities from the world.” He specifically pinpointed June 22, 2020, as the date of one such “yield-producing test.”
In response, China’s ambassador on disarmament, Shen Jian, did not directly address the U.S. charge. Instead, he asserted that Beijing has consistently acted with prudence and responsibility regarding nuclear matters.
“China notes that the U.S. continues in its statement to hype up the so-called China nuclear threat. China firmly opposes such false narratives,” Shen said, adding that the U.S. “is the culprit for the aggravation of the arms race.”
Diplomats attending the conference reportedly described the U.S. allegations as both new and concerning.
Global Arms Control Faces a Critical Moment
The expiration of the 2010 New START treaty on Thursday marks a significant shift, leaving Russia and the United States without any binding constraints on their deployments of strategic missiles and warheads for the first time in over half a century.
U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed a desire to replace New START with a new agreement that would encompass China, a nation rapidly expanding its own nuclear arsenal.
“Today, the United States faces threats from multiple nuclear powers. In short, a bilateral treaty with only one nuclear power is simply inappropriate in 2026 and going forward,” DiNanno told the Geneva conference. He reiterated U.S. projections that China’s nuclear warhead count could exceed 1,000 by 2030.
However, Shen, the Chinese delegate, reiterated Beijing’s stance that it will not participate in new negotiations with Moscow and Washington at this stage. China has previously highlighted its significantly smaller arsenal, estimated at 600 warheads, compared to approximately 4,000 each for Russia and the U.S.
“In this new era we hope the U.S. will abandon Cold War thinking… and embrace common and cooperative security,” Shen concluded.
Expiry of New START Leaves Arms Control Void
The lapse of New START creates a vacuum in arms control, a situation not seen since 1972. Historically, arms limitation treaties between the United States and the Soviet Union (and later Russia) served as crucial mechanisms to prevent miscalculation and economically ruinous arms races, particularly during the Cold War era of “mutually assured destruction.”
Without a replacement for New START, security analysts foresee a more perilous global environment with an elevated risk of miscalculation. They warn that the U.S. and Russia, forced to operate on worst-case assumptions, would have an incentive to increase their arsenals, especially as China continues to expand its own.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on Friday that while Russia prefers dialogue with the United States post-New START, it is prepared for any scenario. The Kremlin also indicated that both Russia and the U.S. acknowledge the necessity of launching nuclear arms control talks soon, with an understanding reached during recent talks in Abu Dhabi to act responsibly.
Russia has also advocated for the inclusion of NATO nuclear allies Britain and France in negotiations, a proposition rejected by those nations.
At the Geneva forum, Britain echoed the call for a new era of nuclear arms control involving China, Russia, and the U.S., expressing shared U.S. concerns about Beijing’s rapid nuclear expansion. France emphasized the critical need for an agreement among states with the largest nuclear arsenals, particularly given an “unprecedented weakening of nuclear norms.”
Negotiating arms control agreements is a highly complex undertaking, and the international landscape has evolved considerably since New START was signed in 2010. Russia is developing advanced “exotic” systems, including the Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon underwater torpedo, while former President Trump had pledged to build a space-based “Golden Dome” anti-missile defense.
Security analysts predict that any new nuclear agreement would likely take years to negotiate, leaving a significant void in arms control at a time of heightened international tensions over flashpoints such as Ukraine and the Middle East. Some experts suggest that these tensions, coupled with the previous failure of Russia and the U.S. to agree on or even discuss a new treaty, could intensify debates in countries like Japan, South Korea, and Poland regarding whether they should pursue their own nuclear capabilities.