Additional Coverage:
- Warmer words but relations remain frosty between the U.S. and its old friends in Europe (nbcnews.com)
Shifting Sands: Rubio’s European Tour Reveals New U.S. Alliances
From the hallowed halls of Munich to the capitals of Central Europe, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s recent diplomatic journey has unveiled a striking realignment of American priorities on the continent.
After receiving a standing ovation at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, America’s top diplomat embarked on a tour that sent a clear signal about who the U.S. now considers its closest European allies. Instead of traditional partners like Germany or France, Rubio proclaimed a “golden age” in U.S. relations with Hungary, following a meeting with its strongman leader, Viktor Orbán, widely regarded as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest partner among EU leaders.
This pivot comes just a day after Rubio met with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, another populist figure who has expressed opposition to supporting Ukraine and aligns with the “MAGA agenda.” This Central European swing through capitals friendly to the Trump administration followed Rubio’s Valentine’s Day address at the Munich Security Conference, where he initially adopted a warmer tone after months of strained relations between the U.S. and its long-standing allies.
“We belong together,” Rubio asserted to an audience of European leaders and policymakers, many of whom are still grappling with the fallout from the “Greenland clash” and the lingering uncertainty about Washington’s commitment to their security. “For us Americans, our home may be in the Western Hemisphere, but we will always be a child of Europe,” he added to applause.
However, many experts believe this message, while seemingly a stark contrast to Vice President JD Vance’s critical remarks about European values at the same gathering last year, isn’t a true shift in policy. Instead, it’s seen as a more palatable presentation of a U.S. approach that has already fostered talk of a “rupture” with its long-term allies.
Bronwen Maddox, director and chief executive of the London-based think tank Chatham House, noted in her analysis that “The Rubio speech marked a deliberate contrast to Vance’s broadside at European cultural decline. But there was a clear warning that the Trump administration would go its own way in pursuit of U.S. interests if it did not find Europe sympathetic.”
European leaders, it seems, are under no illusions. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz candidly stated at the conference, “A gap, a deep divide, has opened up between Europe and the United States of America.” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also expressed skepticism that the Trump administration had abandoned its aggressive pursuit of Greenland, remarking, “Unfortunately, I think the desire is the same.”
Senator Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., voiced his concerns on X after Rubio’s speech, writing, “Our allies no longer trust us. I know there was celebration at the end of the Munich Security Conference. Unfortunately the champagne corks were popping in Beijing and Moscow.”
The clearest indicator of the Trump administration’s true allegiances in Europe may well be Rubio’s subsequent itinerary. After meeting with Fico in Slovakia, Rubio appeared alongside Orbán on Monday to underscore the importance of U.S. ties with Hungary’s nationalist leader.
Orbán’s firm stance on immigration and rejection of Western liberal values have resonated with conservative and hard-right movements across Europe and the U.S., even as he faces an election challenge in April. The two nations also announced a new agreement on civilian nuclear cooperation.
H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank in London, emphasized that a senior U.S. visit to Hungary immediately following Munich cannot be interpreted solely as alliance maintenance.
“It functions as an unmistakable signal of political affinity,” he stated. While Slovakia’s institutional framework differs from Hungary’s, Hellyer observed a similar trajectory under Fico.
He suggested that U.S. engagement with these leaders appears less like neutral diplomacy and more like reinforcement, and even encouragement, for governments moving in a similar direction.
Hellyer concluded that the order of Rubio’s engagements in Europe delivers a clear message: “rhetorical reassurance to Western Europe in Munich, followed by demonstrative outreach to Central European governments politically aligned – or aligning – with the ideological themes shaping contemporary MAGA foreign-policy thinking.”
In his Munich address, Rubio articulated a vision for the future “as proud, as sovereign, and as vital as our civilization’s past,” referencing Christian faith as a “sacred inheritance” and “unbreakable link between the Old World and the new.” Echoing Vance, he also criticized “destabilizing” mass migration and urged Europeans to regain control of their national borders. “While we are prepared, if necessary, to do this alone, it is our preference and it is our hope to do this together with you, our friends here in Europe,” Rubio declared to a room filled with officials from France, Germany, Britain, and other long-standing allies.
Yet, just days later, Rubio was in Budapest, extolling the U.S. commitment to Orbán and endorsing the euroskeptic strongman for another term. Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Eurasia Group, a geopolitical risk analysis firm, summarized the situation on X, noting that Rubio chose to visit the “two most pro-Putin, anti-Brussels and Trump-loving leaders in the E.U.” after his “oily flattery” of the Europeans in Munich. Rahman concluded with a pointed observation: “By their friends shall you know them.”