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Expert Delivers Grim Outlook on Nancy Guthrie’s Disappearance as Search Nears One Month Mark
Tucson, AZ – Hopes for Nancy Guthrie’s safe return are dwindling as a crime expert has offered a bleak assessment, stating there’s “less than a 10%” chance the 84-year-old will be found alive. This somber prediction comes as the search for Guthrie approaches its fourth week, with authorities still without a suspect or an arrest in what they are treating as a kidnapping.
Michael Gould, a former NYPD lieutenant and a pioneer of the force’s canine unit, shared his professional opinion on the ongoing investigation. Speaking exclusively to a national news outlet, Gould expressed significant doubts about the case being classified as a “kidnapping,” citing a lack of supporting public evidence and historical case data. His comments follow a former FBI agent’s report of a “hidden codeword” used in communications related to the alleged abductors.
Nancy Guthrie was last seen on January 31st after a family meal with her daughter and son-in-law. Her disappearance was reported the following day when she failed to attend her regular church service. Responding officers discovered signs of forced entry and blood on her front porch, prompting the Pima County Sheriff’s Office to initiate a kidnapping investigation.
Gould emphasized the critical importance of the initial hours in missing person cases, noting that 70% to 80% of individuals are typically located within the first 48 to 72 hours. After one week, only 2% to 3% remain unaccounted for. With Guthrie now missing for nearly three weeks, the statistics paint a grim picture.
A significant concern highlighted by Gould is Guthrie’s health. “Nancy Guthrie is 84 years old and reportedly requires life-sustaining medication, which, based on what has been shared, was needed within 24 hours. That strongly suggests she has not been receiving it,” Gould stated.
He further elaborated on the likely outcomes for such cases: “Unfortunately, abductions of this type generally end in one of two ways: a successful rescue, or recovery for family closure. At this stage, in my opinion, the likelihood of a rescue is very low, probably under 10%.”
Despite the challenging outlook, efforts to find Guthrie continue, with the reward money for her safe return recently more than doubling. The Pima County Sheriff’s Office announced Wednesday that an undisclosed contribution, combined with an earlier $50,000 reward and $2,500 from 88 Crime, has elevated the total reward to $202,500. It remains unconfirmed if Michael Hupy, a lawyer and head of Milwaukee Crime Stoppers who previously pledged $100,000, is the anonymous donor.