Strong El Niño hasn’t been what forecasters anticipated

HONOLULU (KHON2) — Since Jan. 1, there have been roughly six cold fronts that have reached the state, bringing rain, wind, and sometimes flooding.

It’s the complete opposite from what forecasters expected when they released the wet season outlook back in Oct.

In Oct., National Weather Service Honolulu said the climate model favored below average rainfall through the entire wet season.

But, the weather this winter has been unpredictable and not typical for El Niño.

“Certainly the ocean is saying it’s El Niño with temperature anomalies [being warmer], and all that but as far as the atmosphere it’s saying ‘What?’ you know it didn’t get the memo,” Kevin Kodama, National Weather Service Honolulu hydrologist said. “And it’s not quite what we were expecting.”

He said El Niño typically brings drier conditions in January and February and they were concerned how it would impact drought conditions this upcoming summer.

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“Things looked pretty dire [in Oct.], and we were expecting things to get worse as we head into the next dry season in really bad shape,” Kodama added.

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