NOAA says a rapidly strengthening El Niño could become one of the strongest events observed in the modern record, raising questions about what the developing climate pattern could mean for Texas, Houston and Katy during the 2026–2027 winter.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center currently has an El Niño Advisory in effect and says there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the fall and winter of 2026–2027. Even more notable, NOAA says there is currently a 69% chance the event could reach a level exceeding previous El Niño events in records dating back to 1950 during the October through December period.
That does not guarantee an unusually cold, rainy or stormy winter in Katy. But historically, strong El Niño events have significantly shifted weather patterns across the southern United States — including Texas.
Is a Strong El Niño Developing in 2026?
Yes…