TEXAS — A powerful surge of Arctic air is pouring into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle far faster and colder than forecast, raising serious concerns that freezing rain and icy conditions could be more severe and longer-lasting across Southeast Texas than many computer models currently indicate. Meteorologists warn that models are underestimating just how cold this air mass is, increasing the risk of an icy mess that may linger into Monday.
Reality Already Colder Than Computer Models
Observed temperatures Friday evening revealed a significant forecast bust, especially in the Panhandle.
At 6 PM Friday:
- Amarillo dropped to 7°F
- The European model had forecast 16°F
- The same model did not predict 7°F until late Sunday night
This means the cold air is outrunning forecasts by nearly two days, a critical error when freezing rain potential is involved.
Why This Matters for Southeast Texas
The Arctic air currently in West Texas and the Panhandle is the same air mass expected to push southeast Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Several models still suggest that:
- Houston may remain above freezing during rain
- Surface temperatures may be marginal
However, real-world observations suggest those assumptions may be wrong, as the cold air is proving stronger, denser, and more aggressive than expected.
Freezing Rain Risk Increasing
Even colder forecast guidance already shows freezing rain across parts of Southeast Texas, yet those same models still appear too warm at the surface…