FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WPTA) – **11:00 pm update: Reviewing evening high resolution data, I have decided to amend the snow map to reflect a widespread 2-3″ vs. our original 1-3″ forecast.**
Original article published at 4:30 pm Thursday: After assessing the latest round of forecast guidance, the 21Alive Weather Team decided to issue a FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY for Friday due to widespread snow increasing in the afternoon and likely impacting the evening commute.
Before issuing ‘First Alert Weather Days,’ the team determines the likelihood of any single weather event following at least one definition below within the next 24-72 hours:
FRIDAY SNOW
Our “first alert” commitment is to let you know storm systems are coming when we know about them, and sure enough we brought this particular snow maker to your attention as early as last Saturday and the forecast track and intensity has remained quite consistent since then, though there are a few slight changes to discuss as well.
- 5 AM TO NOON: Although some flurries/very light snow is possible before noon, the air mass will likely still be too dry to support much accumulation. These are expected to be the quietest, least impactful hours of the day.
- 1 PM TO 5 PM: Snow will increase from southwest and northeast throughout the afternoon, though snowfall rates are expected to remain pretty light, averaging 0.1″ to 0.2″ an hour. This would put us at around half an inch or so by 5 pm. Roads will start to become slick in spots.
- 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT: We expected the highest impacts to occur after sunset. Snowfall rates are also expected to increase slightly to around 0.2″ to 0.4″ per hour. It is primarily due to these increased snowfall rates, and the fact many people will be on the roads Friday evening, that we decided to issue the Alert Day.
- MIDNIGHT TO NOON SATURDAY: Occasional lake effect flurries are possible, but limited additional accumulation is expected.
Total snow accumulation forecast: 2-3″ across the entire area (updated as of 11:00 pm)…