ILLINOIS — A newly released severe weather outlook from Colorado State University’s Machine-Learning Model is placing Illinois and Indiana at the center of the nation’s highest probability for severe storms Thursday into Thursday night.
The CSU-MLP (FV3-GEFSO) Day 4 forecast highlights a concentrated risk area across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. A black dot over central Illinois and western Indiana marks the highest modeled probability of severe weather anywhere in the country during the 24-hour period ending early Friday.
Midwest Bullseye: Illinois and Indiana
The model shows a broad risk area stretching from portions of Missouri and Arkansas northward into Illinois and Indiana, with the strongest signal centered near the Illinois-Indiana border.
Shaded probability zones indicate:
- A broader low-end risk extending into parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi
- A more focused moderate risk across central and eastern Illinois
- The highest probability zone over central Illinois into western Indiana
The model’s maximum probability value reaches just over 30%, which is notable for a forecast issued four days in advance.
What This Means for Naperville and Northern Illinois
While the highest probability zone appears centered slightly south of Chicago, northern Illinois — including the Naperville area — remains within the broader highlighted risk region…