SPRINGFIELD, ILLINOIS — The first significant tornado threat of the year may be setting up across portions of the Midwest on Thursday, with forecast guidance highlighting an arc of enhanced severe weather potential stretching from Missouri through Illinois and into Indiana and western Ohio. While specific storm details remain uncertain, the broader atmospheric pattern supports the development of low-topped supercells capable of producing tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds.
Forecasters indicate that Thursday’s system bears close monitoring as confidence grows in a focused corridor of severe potential.
Core Risk Zone Centers on Illinois and Indiana
Forecast maps show the highest tornado potential centered over:
- Central and southern Illinois
- Much of Indiana
- Eastern Missouri
- Extending eastward into western Ohio
The highlighted risk area includes major cities such as:
- Springfield, Illinois
- Peoria
- Champaign
- Indianapolis
- Terre Haute
- Portions of St. Louis
This corridor represents the most favorable overlap of wind shear and instability, conditions necessary for rotating storms capable of producing tornadoes.
Low-Topped Supercells Could Drive Tornado Potential
Unlike classic spring setups with towering thunderstorms, this event may feature low-topped supercells. These storms do not appear exceptionally tall on radar but can rotate efficiently due to strong wind shear in the lower atmosphere.
Low-topped supercells are known for:
- Brief but potentially strong tornadoes
- Localized damaging wind gusts
- Large hail
The synoptic pattern — including a strengthening low-pressure system and advancing warm sector — supports the development of discrete rotating storms rather than just a linear squall line.
Timing: Thursday Afternoon and Evening
The most likely window for severe development appears to be Thursday afternoon into early evening, when daytime heating maximizes instability across the warm sector…