CHICAGO, ILLINOIS — After a drier-than-normal February across parts of the central United States, new ensemble guidance suggests the first 10 days of March will trend noticeably wetter from Texas through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes — a region that badly needs consistent moisture.
The latest ECMWF ensemble 10-day precipitation anomaly outlook (valid through March 10, 2026) paints a broad corridor of above-average rainfall stretching from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
A Clear Wet Signal from Texas to Michigan
The forecast anomaly map highlights a defined swath of green shading — indicating above-normal precipitation — covering:
- Central and North Texas
- Oklahoma
- Arkansas
- Missouri
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Michigan
- Portions of Ohio
This zone represents the strongest positive precipitation anomaly signal over the central U.S.
In contrast, parts of the Deep South (including Alabama and Georgia) appear closer to normal or slightly below normal in some areas, while the Southwest and parts of California show mixed signals with localized dryness.
Illinois and the Midwest in the Bullseye
For Illinois, especially northern and central sections, this wetter pattern could mark a meaningful shift following February’s dryness…