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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: Onshore flow will increase again next week with rough seas & surf = a high rip current risk.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
(1) ‘91-L′ – The Caribbean wave I’ve been tracking for the past week reached the Yucatan Peninsula Friday & is emerging over the Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile… weak surface low pressure near the coast of Texas has been drifting southward. As hypothesized Fri., it appears these two may interact to gradually develop a tropical system over the far Western Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models vary on track & intensity with the GFS & Canadian the strongest likely because of more time over water due to a north or even north/northeast movement putting coastal Texas & even Louisiana potentially in line for at least a strong tropical storm if not hurricane. The European model on the other hand – along with Climavision’s ‘horizon’ model are less robust primarily due to a more west position bringing land into play sooner. These variables will indeed be the primary drivers in strength of any possible tropical cyclone. Personally – I think we have to watch for at least a little more easterly position given a stationary front remains from the Western Gulf all the way to Florida while weak to moderate upper level troughing persists over the Central & Eastern U.S. If ridging stays west while the trough continues over the Eastern U.S. with enough of a softness extending all the way to the Northern Gulf then any tropical disturbance ay have the necessary alleyway to move more north & northeast. In any case… folks all along the Gulf Coast – & especially from Texas to Louisiana – should stay up to date on the latest forecasts.