A cold front is expected to move across Texas late this week. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. The heaviest rainfall is forecast to stay northwest of the Houston metro area. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall in the northwestern parts of the forecast area. This is a lower risk than earlier forecasts suggested.
Currently, the area has very warm and humid conditions, with near-record high temperatures. Scattered showers are possible today and again on Thursday as moisture moves in from the Gulf. The main cold front will arrive late Thursday night into Friday. This will increase the chance for showers and thunderstorms. The risk of severe weather is low because atmospheric instability is limited and the strongest weather systems will stay north of the region.
Central Texas and the Texas Hill Country are more likely to see heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding, especially from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Flash flooding could affect creeks and rivers in those areas. The Houston area is expected to receive 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, which should be manageable…